tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73852705435843422642024-02-07T05:28:08.083-08:00NPSIA Conflict ManagementThis blog contains posts from the students of the Conflict Management course at NPSIA. These posts are based on their final papers.Steve Saidemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09881915512311951902noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-60218528935942398012016-04-11T12:07:00.000-07:002016-04-11T12:07:01.978-07:00Somaliland: A Case for Partition <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<b><u>Partition as a Conflict Management Tool</u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">As
a conflict management technique, partition is often thought of as the either
the last choice or no choice at all, and for good reason. The arguments
surrounding the use of partition to solve ethnic conflict actually suggest that
by physically separating two warring ethnic groups you will <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/U6800/readings-sm/Kaufmann_PossibleImpossibleSolns.pdf">lessen the chance
that genocide or ethnic cleansing will occur.</a></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; text-indent: 36pt;"><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/U6800/readings-sm/Kaufmann_PossibleImpossibleSolns.pdf"> </a> The reasoning for this argument
lies in the idea that once the groups have been separated tensions will
decrease due to the removal of the security threat that is presented when
ethnically divided groups are intertwined. It is obvious that there are
numerous problems with this concept, such as the logistical challenges of
physically moving populations and the ethical implications behind separating
ethnically mingled families. It is clear that partition is a hard sell.
However, the case of Somaliland may provide the just the right circumstances to
provide support for this conflict management technique.</span></div>
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<b><u>Somaliland and Informal Partition</u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4dGC0UO_AeWwM4r_lSeKPUincrGkvQ8gFRSFNg1sxww9kKBo7V2xOgUhp3-mnDzqukORCFeyti6dQsJQsn0jRToTmvL7Gp5qm1AykHjHBB_BXnOvf_dYqCArxqsJiW-qwN_iru716W-jT/s1600/_54272256_somaliland.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4dGC0UO_AeWwM4r_lSeKPUincrGkvQ8gFRSFNg1sxww9kKBo7V2xOgUhp3-mnDzqukORCFeyti6dQsJQsn0jRToTmvL7Gp5qm1AykHjHBB_BXnOvf_dYqCArxqsJiW-qwN_iru716W-jT/s1600/_54272256_somaliland.gif" /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">For
those who haven’t recently brushed up on their Horn of Africa geography lessons,
modern day Somalia is divided into two distinct geographical and political
regions – Somalia in the south and Somaliland in the north. While Somaliland <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/11/economist-explains">is not recognized as an independent state</a>, it has been operating as such since, in
relative peace and security, since it unilaterally succeeded from Somali after
the toppling of the Somali government in 1991. While Somali <a href="http://www.insightonconflict.org/conflicts/somalia/conflict-profile/">descended into chaos,</a> in short order (about 5 years) Somaliland settled into peace and now
boasts a</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> functioning government, the basis of an elementary taxation
system, a reasonable level of internal security, and some rudimentary public
services. Somaliland holds regular elections for three tiers of government, and
has seen two peaceful presidential transitions, including one to the opposition.
Numerous authors attribute this success to the <a href="http://www.c-r.org/downloads/21_Somalia_2010_ENG_F.pdf">lack of intervention</a> that
Somaliland experienced after 1991 as compared to Somalia. However, little
attention has been paid the effects that Somaliland’s informal partition have
played in helping foster this peace. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">By separating itself from the conflict occurring in the south, Somaliland continued to foster the sense of identity in opposition from southern Somali’s that deplores violence and gave itself the time and space that was required to establish a </span><a href="file:///Users/nicolemeier/Downloads/Walls%20and%20Kibble%20-%20Negotiating%20a%20Hybrid%20State%20%20(2).pdf" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">bottom-up approach</a><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">to power sharing that in based in the tradition clan systems of pre-colonial Somalia. This is not to say that partition is solely responsible for the progress that has occurred in Somaliland, but rather that the separation that occurred was a key element that interacted with the other factors at play during the formative years of Somaliland. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><b><u>Policy Recommendations </u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; text-indent: 36pt;">While, informal partition has served
Somaliland well it is recommended that the international community give formal
recognition as to cement the somewhat fragile democratization process that
continues to unfold rather than continue to ignore it and potentially risk it’s
collapse as party leaders continue to feel the frustration of being denied any
formal international development assistance. And given this fragile situation
in Somaliland and the teetering political transition occurring in Somalia,
Canada should not support reunification of region as this could disturb the
fine balance that has occurred within and between the two halves at the current
moment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; text-indent: 36pt;"><br /></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18180124074202795319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-1014306623621120892016-04-09T12:04:00.002-07:002016-04-09T12:07:57.141-07:00(Mis) Managing the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict<style>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<i>By Amanda Bergmann</i><br />
<i> </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">For over a generation, the
Turkish State and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) have been embroiled in a
conflict over Kurdish rights/autonomy that has cost over 45,000 lives and
produced upwards of 3-4 million internally displaced persons in the span of 32+
years. A variety of conflict management measures –from hard-handed military
campaigns that have forced unilateral ceasefires, to bargains meant to appease
greedy leaders—have been employed. However, transnational ethnic ties, porous
borders, the presence of spoilers on both sides, and the lack of a credible
third-party guarantors have all contributed to the failure of achieving
long-lasting peace.</span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">ROOT
CAUSES</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">Following the dissolution of
the Ottoman Empire, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk – the father of Modern Turkey –
sought to establish a purely secular state around the notion of ‘civic
nationalism’. In addition to promoting a common Turkish cultural, history, and
language in an attempt to consolidate a Turkish civic-national identity, Turkey
sought to assimilate all others by introducing blanket bans on religious and
ethnically-based political groups, and education of minority languages and
histories. The Kurds –who perceive themselves as different based on ethnicity,
language, and culture- faced mounting disenfranchisement within this
increasingly exclusive system. While previously fragmented, Turkey’s
assimilative practices consolidated minority Kurds into one oppositional force:
the PKK, who sought to establish an independent and united socialist republic.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxJfIHYF1AezFwY8SmBTnvm6ff2R2k8ILg7ZlYqtHc52uHfieLXqWbcsmXIm7uubftKxxlDI7CztMRdaIghk3emHsIWW99OhaioSDTAZ7PkgyE43jQZQV3wuKwr66Rlhs8e4DkZWHjna-/s1600/kurdish+population+map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxJfIHYF1AezFwY8SmBTnvm6ff2R2k8ILg7ZlYqtHc52uHfieLXqWbcsmXIm7uubftKxxlDI7CztMRdaIghk3emHsIWW99OhaioSDTAZ7PkgyE43jQZQV3wuKwr66Rlhs8e4DkZWHjna-/s1600/kurdish+population+map.jpg" width="320" /></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">TRANS-BORDER
DIMENSIONS</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">The PKK has previously
launched two deadly insurgencies against the Turkish state: the first from
1984-1999, and the second from 2004-2012. These were largely possible thanks to
the trans-ethnic support offered to the PKK by other Kurdish ethno-nationalist
groups in the region, specifically those based in Iraq and Syria. Encouraged by
these groups’ individual uprisings (known as the ‘</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/3877896"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Demonstration Effect</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">’), and assisted tangibly in
their establishment of safe havens (which allowed the PKK to recruit and train
soldiers, and disseminate propaganda), the PKK has thus far been able to
sustain over 23 years of conflict.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">In contrast, these
trans-border links have prompted the Turkish government to respond with
increasing hostility. </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2014.903451#.VwgJMj9g274"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Afraid Kurdish successes in the region
will lead to the establishment of an independent Kurdistani</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";"> state that then threatens
Turkey’s territorial sovereignty, the Turkish government has responded to these
insurgencies with an incredible amount of force. While this worked during the
first insurgency –where the capture of Öcalan and the exhaustion of the PKK
eventually saw the PKK declare a unilateral ceasefire and undergo a
restructuring process—their failure to fully secure the border have allowed the
PKK to continually use these international safe havens to mount responses. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">GREEDY
ACTORS</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<a href="http://www.ozgurmedya.org/images/news/2015-02-16-ozgecandan-ozur-dileyerek-ocalan-ve-erdogan-yaziyorum---murat-yetkin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.ozgurmedya.org/images/news/2015-02-16-ozgecandan-ozur-dileyerek-ocalan-ve-erdogan-yaziyorum---murat-yetkin.jpg" height="145" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">Greedy Actors “</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/2539366"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">hold goals that expand or contract based
on calculations of cost and risk.</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">” As greedy actors, both Öcalan (PKK) and
Erdogan (Turkish Government) have contributed to the extended length of the
conflict.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">When founded, the PKK (and
Öcalan) established itself as the sole representative of the Kurdish people in
Turkey by promising autonomy. After the PKK’s defeat in 1999, Öcalan’s goals
scaled back, insteading looking to secure Kurdish rights within the system.
However, once Öcalan realized that </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/47/6/775.short"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">incorporation into the system may undermine his political
powers within a fragmented Kurdish group</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">, Öcalan once again sought autonomy,
reverted to violence, and initiated the second insurgency in 2004.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">Meanwhile, Erdogan’s goals
have also shifted based on cost-benefit analysis. The AKP has traditionally
been pro-Kurdish in order to secure the Kurdish vote. Furthermore, when
Turkey’s membership accession to the EU was initially accepted, the AKP pushed
through a number of pro-Kurdish changes. However, a slowdown in EU membership
accession and threats to the AKP’s (and by extension, Erdogan’s) power have seen
Erdogan revert to violence. Recognizing that he may entrench power more easily
by </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/21/erdogans-deadly-ambitions-turkey-elections-president/"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">creating a sense of chaos</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";"> over fulfilling his promises
to the Kurds, Erdogan has opted for the former.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">LACK
OF CREDIBLE THIRD-PARTY GUARANTOR</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<a href="http://irinn.ir/sitefiles/13930415/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C/%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%20%D9%88%20%D9%88%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B4%20%D8%A8%D9%87%20%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%20%D8%B9%D8%B6%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA%20%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D9%87%20%D8%AF%D8%B1%20%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%20%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%87.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://irinn.ir/sitefiles/13930415/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C/%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%20%D9%88%20%D9%88%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B4%20%D8%A8%D9%87%20%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%20%D8%B9%D8%B6%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA%20%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D9%87%20%D8%AF%D8%B1%20%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%20%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%87.jpg" height="200" width="190" /></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">Following the first
insurgency, one major reason why Turkey sought to open the political process to
the Kurds was the </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/2703607?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">credible commitment of the EU</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">. Instead of wiping the Kurds
out once and for all, EU Membership prompted their inclusion. The EU was
instrumental in ensuring that Turkey enacted harmonization packages which
expanded the rights of Kurds. For example, it was the EU’s oversight which saw
Öcalan’s sentence reduced from death to life imprisonment. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">However, the accession of
Cyprus in 2004, coupled by a number of other geo-strategic considerations, have
</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jcms.12010/full"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">undercut the credibility of the EU as a
guarantor</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">.
As such, there was a substantial slowdown in Turkey’s adherence to their
requirements. Decisions were instead made with domestic cost-benefit analyses
in mind, as opposed to EU conditionality. This allowed the Turks to renege on
their commitments to the Kurds, creating conditions that incentivized the Kurds
to rebel.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">SO
WHAT NEXT?</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman";">Turkey and the PKK have
renewed violent clashes once again. Trans-border ties, greedy actors, and a
lack of a credible third-party guarantor will likely once again contribute to
continued violence. Initiatives which strengthen border security, socialize
greedy actors into compliance, and hold actors accountable are all likely to
help mitigate continued conflict. However, their feasibility is another
question altogether.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
Amanda Bergmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04745259771148853153noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-45607725611380827002016-04-08T11:59:00.000-07:002016-04-08T12:00:00.982-07:00Power-sharing in Burundi<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
No one likes to share, but some are worse at it than others.</div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
The majority Hutus and minority Tutsis in
Burundi have been in conflict for decades. The Tutsis, despite only consisting
of 13 per cent of the population compared to the Hutus making up 86 per cent,
had historically been in power. The Hutus, however, won the first-ever
multi-ethnic, multi-party elections in 1993 with an overwhelming majority.
Their new president, Melchior Ndadaye, was sworn in, but assassinated by Tutsis
extremists just four months later. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
This event was one in a long series of attempted
coups, assassinations, and mass killings that had had Burundi at nearing its boiling
point for years. It officially began what would be their 12-year civil war. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
The international community, motivated by a
humanitarian aim to stop the killing, and a political aim to curb the
possibility of conflict further affecting the region, stepped in to help. The
primary goal of the United Nations, the African Union, and many other
countries, was to get the warring factions to come to a power-sharing
agreement, but each attempt failed. Despite that Burundi is an ideal candidate
for a power-sharing system, but the pillars of Consociational Theory did not
apply during the war, and do not apply now. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
In order for Consociational Theory, a form
of power-sharing, to work, according to its creator Arend Lijphart, there must
be grand coalition, segmental autonomy, minority representation or parity, and
minority veto. A coalition was constitutionalized, but to segment the
population and governance would cause a multitude of other issues. Minority
representation and veto were discussed and, to a certain extent, implemented,
but only at the level of official appointments, and not to the point of how it
would trickle down to the population. For example, an agreed-upon power-sharing
system was that the ratio of <span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">ministers
must be 60 per cent Hutu and 40 per cent Tutsi, and 30 per cent must be women;
Ministers of National Defense and National Police must both be ethnically
different. However, it was never specified how this would benefit the
population.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">Both sides of the war lived in fear that if they lost power, the opposing
side would kill them en masse, which, to be fair, was attempted on several occasions
by both Hutus and Tutsis. There was no credible commitment on either side until
Nelson Mandela took over the Arusha Peace Agreement talks in 1999. The support
and enforcement of South Africa encouraged dialogue, but it still took a year
for an agreement to be reached, and another five for it to be implemented. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">Continued mass killings and the emergence of spoilers and veto players
made an agreement next to impossible. The emphasis of the international community
on stemming the killing by imposing sanctions could have helped, because the
lack of trust on all sides of the bargaining table significantly delayed an
agreement, and increased reticence </span>to fully commit. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
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<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
The implementation of a peace and
power-sharing agreement gave Burundi 10 years of relative peace, but fighting
has started up again over politics and who should have the presidency. <span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="tab-stops: right 468.0pt;">
<i><span style="color: #999999;">By: Spencer Van Dyk</span></i></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04085360212781550974noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-3915596719897284372016-04-08T11:05:00.000-07:002016-04-08T11:05:22.722-07:00Partial Success: The United Nations Organization in the Congo<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">The Congo Crisis of 1960 to 1964 was a period of armed conflict and political turmoil that followed the decolonization of modern-day Democratic Republic of the Congo. There were a number of contributing factors to the eruption of civil war in the Congo; dissatisfaction with the redistribution of power after decolonization, the disruptive influence of external powers and the presence of unprecedented political opportunity for change.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Minimal efforts had been made by Belgian authorities to prepare the government for a transition to democratic, multi-ethnic rule, and the resulting collapse of the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba and President Kasa-Vubu eventually paved the way for the dictator Joseph Mobutu’s rise to power.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Within weeks of the country’s acquisition of independence on June 30th, 1960, the country was subject to a military mutiny, an incursion by Belgian paratroopers and two secessionist movements, in South Kasai and in Katanga. The central government made appeals to the United Nations for assistance with the expulsion of foreign military groups and the repression of the secessionist movements that undermined the legitimacy of the state.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">The United Nations responded swiftly with the passing of a number of Security Council resolutions that granted the Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold the authority to head ONUC: the United Nations Mission to the Republic of the Congo. The <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/onucM.htm">initial mandate</a> was to coordinate the withdrawal of Belgian forces, to assist the central government in the maintenance of peace and order and to offer technical assistance wherever possible. The mandate evolved to include the maintenance of the Congo’s territorial integrity and political independence, alongside the prevention of civil war and the expulsion of foreign military elements operating in the region.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Hammarskjold’s diplomatic efforts were replaced with direct military advances by his successor U Thant. The shift became an unexpectedly complex and costly endeavor for the United Nations peacekeeping force, which had expanded to almost 20,000 men. UN forces escalated operations, apprehending and arresting foreign military elements, engaging in firefights with Tshombe’s forces and seizing strategic roadblocks and positions. Peacekeepers ultimately overran Katanga’s capital, Elizabethville and coerced secessionist leader Moise Tshombe to sign a declaration disavowing Katangese independence. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">The evaluation done for this analysis was accomplished through the application of three criteria from the wider literature on peacekeeping success. The mission was assessed based on its ability to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232932111_Assessing_the_Success_of_UN_Peacekeeping_Operations">accomplish basic operational goals</a>, to <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13533310500436508?journalCode=finp20#.Vwfxk_mfYik">alleviate the suffering</a> of the host population and to generate a lasting peace.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPMGvB7oBW-ywQYSGdloTfk6g3lfb-Uah8CZy1dsWcyJdOy88D6lGdLECu6Fmp80wWWi99eV3DzVQ7CC8Pu8IYpp7Q0nmgPGUkD6-NRU3A0pImKworbe3USLqXfyrtlGJQhtLyHjlZ4Zf/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPMGvB7oBW-ywQYSGdloTfk6g3lfb-Uah8CZy1dsWcyJdOy88D6lGdLECu6Fmp80wWWi99eV3DzVQ7CC8Pu8IYpp7Q0nmgPGUkD6-NRU3A0pImKworbe3USLqXfyrtlGJQhtLyHjlZ4Zf/s400/Capture.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Based upon ONUC’s performance on the assessed criteria, the verdict is that the mission could be assessed as a partial success.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">ONUC successfully met objectives set out for the eradication of the Katanga secession, and expelled foreign military forces from the country quickly and effectively. Their efforts were followed by a lasting peace, (wherein peace can be described as the absence of war) in which the government in place was strong enough to put down flare-ups in pro-Lumumbist groups in the east for three decades.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">But the United Nations mission to the Congo failed to reduce human suffering in the country, exacerbating battle deaths and civilian casualties. ONUC failed to affect positive change upon the intensity and frequency of armed clashes, nor did it succeed in limiting ceasefire violations. The intervention had no significant impact upon the resettlement of refugees or internally displaced persons.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">The choice to engage the United Nations in a peacekeeping effort, in itself, is not problematic. Peacekeeping has been proven in reducing the likelihood of conflict resurgence, <a href="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381611000764">conflict contagion</a> and in the <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9427258&fileId=S0003055414000446#center">reduction of battlefield deaths</a> between hostile parties. With that in mind, we can consider the options that may have been available to United Nations peacekeepers, in their effort to fulfill their mandate in the Congo.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Countering ONUC’s shortcomings in the alleviation of suffering could be accomplished through the application of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232010726_Saving_Liberal_Peacebuilding">modern peacebuilding</a> tactics. The establishment of robust, comprehensive institutions for the protection and resettlement of refugees would be a strong place to start any kind of initiative for the protection of a vulnerable population.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">United Nations peacekeeping missions should work cooperatively with the central government to generate growth and development. This can be accomplished through the construction of physical infrastructure, the provision of economic and political expertise on reforms and stability, and the presence of observational missions to reflect and respond to progress as it moves forward.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 16.7999992370605px;">Finally, the question of impartiality remains incredibly problematic. The presence of clear bias in engagements with secessionist movements in Katanga and South Kasai could’ve undermined the credibility of ceasefire agreements and peace negotiations facilitated by UN forces. Though the use of force against rebels by the United Nations ultimately led to the resolution of the secession in Katanga, this bias toward the central government could have harmed the appearance of the United Nations as a credible third-party enforcer. </span></div>
R Caineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11161018215151144887noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-58299636624724649092016-04-08T05:55:00.000-07:002016-04-08T05:55:00.718-07:00Ripeness and Longevity in El Salvador: How Peace was Possible and Why it Lasted.<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Salvadoran Civil War, fought from 1979-1992, was one of the most devastating </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">conflicts in the recent history of
the Americas. The war, which killed between 70-80,000 people, was fought
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYCKfIpU50ZjaCAxDCELilruD3ofBtn3Dmos-GG0BeJ8FG20hqV-w0CVJ9gc-cJYcMyJ6t78pK2XZx2Mos-u-QQHT6_KMcsmtmkhAtjzMb8ABv4QZDoyamU691I7JBn0zOFZNai1EJu4b/s1600/elsalvador.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYCKfIpU50ZjaCAxDCELilruD3ofBtn3Dmos-GG0BeJ8FG20hqV-w0CVJ9gc-cJYcMyJ6t78pK2XZx2Mos-u-QQHT6_KMcsmtmkhAtjzMb8ABv4QZDoyamU691I7JBn0zOFZNai1EJu4b/s320/elsalvador.png" width="320" /></a></div>
between the Marxist FMLN and the Salvadoran government. The primary origins of
the war were deep economic inequality and severe state repression. Despite
the devastating effects of the war it was resolved through a negotiated settlement. Today we see that, despite its problems, El Salvador is a
functioning democracy in which the FMLN is a major party. Thus, El Salvador is perhaps one of the most successful
examples of a civil being resolved through negotiation. This naturally raises two questions
why was a negotiated peace possible and why did it successfully create a
lasting peace?<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">There were a number of attempts to negotiate
peace in El Salvador throughout the course of the war. However peace efforts
had to contend with an often hostile international climate. This hostility
stemmed primarily from the <a href="http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA515610">United States</a> and its <a href="http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA162551">focus</a> on preventing the loss of
El Salvador to communism. The<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/165705?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Contadora</a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>peace process is emblematic of
the importance of an amenable international context. Just as it was nearing
completion the deal was torpedoed by the United States.<o:p></o:p></span><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">A favorable international climate was, however,
only one aspect necessary for </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">successful</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> negotiations. In 1987, whilst the US was </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">somewhat</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> cowed in the wake of Iran-Contra ,the Esquipulas Peace Accords were signed
by the Central American leaders. These accords, like Contadora, were aimed at establishing broad
principles for settling conflicts across the region. While Esquipulas did
eventually serve as the framework for peace in El Salvador, serious negotiations
would not get underway for another three years. The reason for this delay was
that the conflict had not achieved what Zartman termed</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.library.carleton.ca/doi/abs/10.1080/14718800108405087#.VwbiUfkrLIU" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">ripeness</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">.
For much of the war both sides felt they could win militarily. Thus a mutually
hurting stalemate was not present. Second, both sides saw the others demands as
unacceptable and thus felt negotiation was not a viable way out.<o:p></o:p></span><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZuJko-uEeZR0gMQKAu1CExS220IEivbjQWwYaJgC8KEvdgvijzPD4wdDLCw7kLDNpU_hP5b_olz69F6F3WzOjCjsnmBFmFpScyxI4DhuzbC20_Lod3T33yNHpd6xweMQzPfec7QR7Gxq/s1600/de-soto.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZuJko-uEeZR0gMQKAu1CExS220IEivbjQWwYaJgC8KEvdgvijzPD4wdDLCw7kLDNpU_hP5b_olz69F6F3WzOjCjsnmBFmFpScyxI4DhuzbC20_Lod3T33yNHpd6xweMQzPfec7QR7Gxq/s320/de-soto.jpg" width="320" /></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://ahr.oxfordjournals.org/content/120/5/1784.extract">In 1889</a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>the FMLN launched its largest offensive of the war. It was eventually repelled but the offensive demonstrated
to both sides that neither could achieve outright victory. In addition, the Cold War
began to wind down and congressional opponents in the US grew stronger and moved to limit aid to El Salvador. It was in the wake of these events that a
ripe moment as well as a favorable international scene converged and serious
negotiations and eventually peace became possible.<o:p></o:p></span><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">In many ways the peace treaty actually left many
of the underlying issues at stake </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">during</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> the war unresolved. Instead it sought to create a working
democracy in which future disputes could be settled peacefully.
Today El Salvador is a functioning democracy and the peace
has held. What factors allowed the peace deal to sustain such longevity?<o:p></o:p></span><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">El Salvador’s political system
was actually well designed for post war reconstruction. Its legislature is
elected by proportional representation and its presidents are prohibited from
serving more than one five year term consecutively. However, El Salvador had a
long history of military intervention in the political process. Thus, to build
a sustainable democracy, politics had to be demilitarized. This was accomplished
through several</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/polq.12181/abstract" style="line-height: 115%;">steps</a>.<span class="apple-converted-space" style="line-height: 115%;"> F</span><span style="line-height: 115%;">or example, the size of the military
was reduced, a new civilian police force, that included former FMLN combatants, was </span><span style="line-height: 20.7px;">established</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> to replace the </span><span style="line-height: 20.7px;">military</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> as keeper of internal security, and human rights abusers were removed from
their posts.<o:p></o:p></span><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The transition to democracy was overseen by
ONUSAL which was one of the most comprehensive peacekeeping forces up to that
point. ONUSAL went well beyond a </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 20.7px;">traditional</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> observer mission and undertook what the Secretary General termed</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="https://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/1999/9.pdf" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">peacebuilding</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">.
In doing so, ONUSAL took on a wide variety of responsibilities relating to the
peace process. At times it was </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">effectively</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> a co-governing body.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/166249?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">ONUSA</a><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">L
oversaw the demobilization of </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 20.7px;">belligerents</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">, helped establish new institutions, promoted human
rights, and oversaw elections. Alongside ONUSAL other UN bodies like</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14754830590952161?journalCode=cjhr20" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">UNESCO</a><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">or the Salvadoran Truth Commission helped promote
values of tolerance and reconciliation. The efforts of ONUSAL and other UN
agencies helped to overcome many of the growing pains of a re-emerging
democracy and begin the process of national healing.<o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">We can take a number of
key lessons from El Salvador. First, timing matters to peace negotiations. It
was only when a ripe moment and favorable international conditions converged
that a </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">successful</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> negotiation was possible. Second, third party support can
inhibit efforts aimed at negotiation by direct interference or the prevention of the development of </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 20.7px;">ripeness</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">. Breaking support links may be necessary before a peace can be reached. Finally, broad efforts aimed at enhancing
democratic institutions, as well as promoting tolerance, reconciliation, and
human rights can help heal old wounds and enhance the legitimacy of the new
democratic system. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;">Further Reading</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dianna
Villiers Negroponte <i>Seeking Peace in El
Salvador : The Struggle to Reconstruct a Nation at the end of the Cold War
</i>(New York: Palgrave McMillian 2011)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">Tommie
Sue Montgomery </span><i style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">Revolution in El Salvador:
From Civil Strife to Civil Peace </i><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">(Boulder: Westview Press 1995)</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hugh
Byrne <i>El Salvador’s Civil War: A Study of
Revolution </i>(Boulder Lynne Reiner Publishers. 1996) </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-CA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Alvaro
De Soto “Ending Violent Conflcit in El Salvador“ in <i>Herding Cats: Multiparty negotiations in a complex world </i>Washington:
US Institute of Peace press, 1999)<i> </i></span></div>
David Armstronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15089201902771365909noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-42695704564611235042016-04-07T17:17:00.000-07:002016-04-07T17:25:35.194-07:00Democratic Republic of Congo: A case for micro-peacebuilding <div class="Body">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Last week the </span><a href="http://monusco.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=10662&ctl=Details&mid=14594&ItemID=21809&language=en-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Hyperlink0" style="color: #3d85c6;">United Nations Security Council</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> extended MONUSCO’s peacekeeping mission for
another year in the Democratic Public of Congo (DRC), ushering the mission into
its 17</span><sup style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> year. The Security Council is hoping that in this year
MONUSCO can address the ongoing humanitarian concerns and support upcoming
federal elections.</span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The DRC remains one of the <a href="http://www.international.gc.ca/development-developpement/countries-pays/drc-rdc.aspx?lang=eng"><span class="Hyperlink0" style="color: #3d85c6;">poorest countries in the world</span></a> – despite its wealth of resources. After two
decades of peacebuilding<i> </i>in the DRC, primarily in eastern Kivu regions,
if success is measured in <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI"><span class="Hyperlink0" style="color: #3d85c6;">Human Development Index (HDI)</span></a> rankings, we can categorize this
intervention as a tremendous failure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi4YZxsfOrrBkKCpx2NyfAQou5L3_b5CX-Y9zwtbNirmCaqO7u9VY48NLvyEGTJWuIThvpC-f2WiLx5b4mB6ce9KzPZC9h0WZMTpDD4Zl7-_pfKHhNM2Wu3BKdI3BAXKRjtL-MXkiZwuFj/s1600/DRC+MONUSCO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi4YZxsfOrrBkKCpx2NyfAQou5L3_b5CX-Y9zwtbNirmCaqO7u9VY48NLvyEGTJWuIThvpC-f2WiLx5b4mB6ce9KzPZC9h0WZMTpDD4Zl7-_pfKHhNM2Wu3BKdI3BAXKRjtL-MXkiZwuFj/s320/DRC+MONUSCO.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Though MONUSCO has tried revising
strategy several times, attempting to cater the mission to regional needs,
little progress is evident. Perhaps this is due to the fundamental flaws of the
UN approach itself. When the UN rolled out their modern peacekeeping missions
after the fall of the Iron Curtain, they employed then-UN Secretary General
Boutros Boutros-Ghali’s strategy, as outlined in his <a href="http://www.un-documents.net/a47-277.htm"><span class="Hyperlink1"><span style="color: #3d85c6; font-style: normal;">An Agenda For Peace</span></span></a><i>. </i>This is
based on top-down liberal internationalism – a framework <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/a-return-to-multilateralism-meet-roland-paris-the-man-behind-justin-trudeaus-foreign-policy"><span class="Hyperlink0" style="color: #3d85c6;">Roland Paris</span></a> critiqued as the crux of UN failures. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What is
Liberal International Peacebuilding?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="Body">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The conceptual framework is: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">democracy, societal institutions, justice,
human rights and a free market are the foundation for a peaceful society</i>.
Therefore, importing these components of western society to war torn regions of
the world, seems a reasonable way to build positive, lasting peace. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The strategy in the DRC has been
very responsive to the situation on the ground. However, it has not strayed
from the classic peacekeeping mission mandate of MONUSCO, and when it refocused
in the 2013 <a href="http://www.un.org/wcm/webdav/site/undpa/shared/undpa/pdf/SESG%2520Great%2520Lakes%2520Framework%2520of%2520Hope.pdf"><span class="Hyperlink0" style="color: #3d85c6;">A Framework for Hope</span></a>, the distilled emphasis is clearly based on
the Bourtos-Ghali framework:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l5 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To deepen
security sector reform</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To
consolidate State Authority, particularly in eastern DRC</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To make
progress in decentralization</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To further
economic development</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo5; tab-stops: list 36.0pt 37.65pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To further
structural reform of public institutions</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 37.65pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo6; tab-stops: list 36.0pt 37.65pt; text-indent: -19.65pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">•<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To further
reconciliation</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A workable
framework?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="Heading" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 7.5pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The problem with
liberal peacebuilding is not the concept of creating like societies. It is the
top-down, peace-first approach. UN engagement requires the national government
to work with the international community, in order to give national ownership
to the intervention. The issue with working directly with government is that
they are able to influence the mission for their own benefit. Based from <span lang="SV" style="background: white;">Michael Barnett and Christoph Z</span><span style="background: white;">ü</span><span lang="DE" style="background: white;">rcher</span><span lang="FR" style="background: white;">’</span><span style="background: white;">s </span><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255004636_The_Peacebuilder's_Contract"><span class="Hyperlink2"><span lang="FR">‘<span style="color: #3d85c6;">peacebuilder’s contract</span>’</span></span></a><span style="background: white;">, Michael Lawrence outlines the heart of the
issue in his article </span><a href="https://www.cigionline.org/blogs/rethinking-peacebuilding/two-modes-of-un-peacebuilding#disqus_thread"><span class="Hyperlink3" style="color: #3d85c6;">Two Modes of
UN Peacebuilding</span></a><span style="background: white;">: </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i><span style="background: white;">State elites have their own
interests in maintaining power and survival but desire the resources and
legitimization provided by international peacebuilding programs. The ensuing
negotiation between the two produces ‘compromised peacebuilding</span></i><i><span lang="FR" style="background: white;">’ </span></i><i><span style="background: white;">in which national elites accede to
international peacebuilding in exchange for resources, but their commitment to
liberalization remains largely symbolic</span></i><span style="background: white;">.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This issue occurs at top levels, and bleeds down through the
mission, regardless of how responsive the peacekeepers on the ground try to be.
And it really seems to be an identity crisis of the UN – as <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/At-Wars-End-Building-Conflict/dp/0521541972/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1460065299&sr=1-2"><span class="Hyperlink4" style="color: #3d85c6;">Paris has identified</span></a>, they are required to have both a <i>“heavy
footprint</i><i><span lang="FR">’</span></i><span lang="FR"> </span>by which they can critically influence the
nation, and a <i>‘light footprint</i><i><span lang="FR">’</span></i> that allows local actors to participate in pursuit of their own
peacebuilding direction. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In the DRC, matters are further complicated by how
many rebel groups there are. The <a href="http://congoresearchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/CRG-Armed-Groups-in-the-Congo.pdf"><span class="Hyperlink4" style="color: #3d85c6;">Congo Research Group reports</span></a> there are currently over 70
rebel groups in the eastern region. While most are small, less than 200 people,
this often makes security the top priority over other society building
exercises. For these reasons, I propose the DRC needs to have a specifically
focused, community-based strategy. This strategy would build on the work of
Paris, <span lang="SV" style="background: white;">Barnett and Z</span><span style="background: white;">ürcher, and
Lawrence. Lawrence has offered a peace-second, </span><a href="https://www.cigionline.org/blogs/rethinking-peacebuilding/two-modes-of-un-peacebuilding#disqus_thread"><span class="Hyperlink5" style="color: #3d85c6;">integrated peacebuilding
strategy</span></a><span style="background: white;">, that elevates civil society to the level of
national government, and encourages communication between the three actors.
This can be made more robust through training opportunities at the community
level for the purpose of integrating community leaders into the domestic
governments of all levels and the UN writ large. In addition, the UN could
focus on micro-peace-building projects that are long term and united with
community leaders. The project direction and strategy would come from the local
community, who would determine what </span><i><span style="background: white;">peace</span></i><span style="background: white;"> means to them.</span><span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">By Jessica Baran</span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">MA Candidate in International Affairs</span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i>Conflict Analysis and Resolution</i></span></span></div>
<div class="Body" style="mso-pagination: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University</span></span></div>
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Jessica Baranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13159479569876511620noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-19080326732642676192016-04-06T15:19:00.002-07:002016-04-06T15:19:39.978-07:00The Civil War in Libya- Where Should the International Community Focus their Peace-Building Efforts?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36pt;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The Arab Spring movement in
2011 disrupted the governing regimes in many countries in the Middle East and
North Africa. The demonstrations,
spawned by an increasing cost of living, initiated a reform movement which </span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">endeavored</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> to liberalize these autocratically controlled economies. Some countries in the region, namely Tunisia and Egypt,
removed these regimes entirely while the governments in Algeria and Morocco
granted concessions which appeared to have successfully addressed the call for
reform. In Libya, Qaddafi resisted the demand
for a more liberalized economy and, due to his iron-fisted rule, there existed
little room for opposition groups where the populous could express their discontent. Tension built over time and in a highly urbanized,
sparsely populated country, Qaddafi’s regime was destined to fall.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHy6Au-iZyYbfvRT8log7Pe7ET9vvc3otYVeUDvmdnuQ6GtzBHDVnXuuCRVc58LhBpL2XaEam-a5FL7XfQF2LfEvqQ3SOvU9ZPXiiiytcnXsU673ItlwHTIdBvbbFcN4hv6ZuCIYeAfQ/s1600/110406_protests_libya_328_ap.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHy6Au-iZyYbfvRT8log7Pe7ET9vvc3otYVeUDvmdnuQ6GtzBHDVnXuuCRVc58LhBpL2XaEam-a5FL7XfQF2LfEvqQ3SOvU9ZPXiiiytcnXsU673ItlwHTIdBvbbFcN4hv6ZuCIYeAfQ/s320/110406_protests_libya_328_ap.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> After
the death of Qaddafi, elections were held in Libya in 2012 in which the
National Forces Alliances (NFA) Party garnered 48% of the vote and the Muslim
Brotherhood backed political party, the Justice and Construction Party (JCP),
only gathered about 10% of the vote.
Despite this, the JCP was able to build a loose coalition that allowed
them to control over 50% of the seats in Parliament and passed two initiatives
aimed at cementing th</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">e JCP, and by extension the Muslim Brotherhood, as a political
fixture in Libya. </span></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> The
next round of elections in 2014 saw growing resentment towards parliament as a
whole and the JCP and NFA suffered because of it. The people decidedly chose to elect parliamentarians
based on their individual campaigns and not along party lines, which resulted
in a mixture of parties now involved in Libyan politics. The Muslim Brotherhood backed JCP regarded
this as a loss of their power and worried about potential retribution that might
be leveled at the Brotherhood for its past purges of Qaddafi sympathizers. Fearing this, they moved to take military
control of the capital, Tripoli. From this point on, the conflict in Libya can
generally be divided into <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/04/libya-tale-governments-150404075631141.html">two
distinct camps</a>: the non-Islamist Operation Dignity and the Muslim Brotherhood
backed Operation Dawn. Each have their
own Prime Minister, Parliament, and military forces. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Operation Dignity is a
loose affiliated arrangement of federalists, disaffected military units, and
tribes from Eastern Libya. They are
backed overtly by Egypt and the UAE and are generally regarded as the
legitimate government of Libya by the international community. Operation Dawn is backed by Islamic forces
and militias who want to rid Libya of Qaddafi-era holdovers and want further
economic liberalization. They are not
recognized internationally by the UN but are backed in a covert fashion by
Turkey, Qatar, and Sudan. As a result,
Libya is divided between fragile but stable alliances in which the potential for
a larger, more violent civil conflict exists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There have been mediation
efforts via Britain’s Special Envoy Johnathon Powell and UN Special
Representative Bernardino Leon, who <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/19/libya-un-unity-government-power-sharing-rejection">have
engaged both sides in talks</a>. They
have emphasized the need for Operation Dawn and Dignity to reunite under a
single parliament once again, however, the fear is that any collaboration by
either side may lead to further fragmentation. To add further complexity to
the Libya conflict, <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=60490">ISIS has a growing presence</a> due to the power vacuum created by the fighting. They are regarded as an enemy of both Dawn
and Dignity; consequently, this may allow Dawn and Dignity an avenue for
cooperation in the future. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36pt;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Where does this leave
Libya? Despite its recent past, there
exists a potential in Libya to move forward in a positive manner, however,
action needs to be taken soon in an effort to mitigate the possibility of
cemented positions</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. The UN and the EU are already heavily
involved because of the UN/NATO intervention in 2011, the worry that Libya
might provide safe haven to Jihadist elements, and the presence of ISIS
resulting from the power vacuum. Libya
needs to focus on demilitarizing Operations Dawn and Dignity, amalgamating of
the two separate parliaments, and initiating security sector reform. Canada, through its allies, can support these </span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">endeavors</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> in an effort to increase stability in Libya and disrupt the ability
for ISIS to spread beyond Iraq and Syria. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12596747102152054251noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-79372227535871657062016-04-06T13:52:00.004-07:002016-04-06T13:52:46.009-07:00<b> Conflict Management within Tajikistan:</b><br />
<b> Short-term stability at the cost of long-term peace </b><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/KBfCNjH0rNIH7hKrZ11DY6JCox8AqVJd0rA4I66cqwW8RjrzlwcPclTI0dvTn5NHne75_9BbZMGyR0ArZQ3_nnN8P-z0FNq-5H3s-ThwWUdh2hSroU97FxHcZuD8ZTNQcwE_PpS4" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/KBfCNjH0rNIH7hKrZ11DY6JCox8AqVJd0rA4I66cqwW8RjrzlwcPclTI0dvTn5NHne75_9BbZMGyR0ArZQ3_nnN8P-z0FNq-5H3s-ThwWUdh2hSroU97FxHcZuD8ZTNQcwE_PpS4" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="320" /></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Tajikistan is a nation that is often overlooked within the realm of international relations and is largely categorized as just another “-Stan Country”. However, it is currently undergoing a large-scale attack against political Islam; and after nearly two decades, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the poorest nation in Central Asia is sliding back into civil war. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; text-indent: 36pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">With the collapse of the Soviet Union came an intense debate within Tajikistan about the economic and political future of the nation. On one side, the People’s Democratic Party advocated for political consistency and a secular system. The other contender was the United Tajik Opposition (or UTO), which favoured democratic reforms and islamic renewal within the nation. The two parties engaged in one of the bloodiest post-SSR conflicts, resulting in nearly </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/12/tajikistan-stability-better-than-uncertainty-201312375133865833.html" style="line-height: 1.38; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">100,000 deaths</span></a><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; text-indent: 36pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. The civil war ended with the General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord, which largely dictated the conflict management techniques that were to be implemented. The peace settlement’s primary accomplishments were the establishment of a required 30% quota of UTO members within governance and a rapid reintegration process. </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/accord/general-agreement-establishment-peace-and-national-accord-tajikistan" style="line-height: 1.38; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The General Agreement</span></a><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is often contributed to the end of the Tajikistan civil war and is predominately held in high regard as a conflict management strategy. However, much of the success that can be attributed to the General Agreement can also be attributed to its current failures.</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; text-indent: 36pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> At the time the peace agreement was being made, the Tajik state was undergoing a rapid privatization. Accordingly, by incentivizing elites of the conflict with previously state-owned assists, peace became more profitable than war and the reintegration process occurred quite quickly. However, this approach to conflict management has proven problematic for Tajikistan. By appeasing elites of the conflict, government offices have become synonymous with self-enrichment. Given this, the General Agreement as entrenched corruption into the government system. This is clearly seen today, as Tajikistan ranks within the </span><a href="http://www.transparency.org/cpi2015#results-table" style="line-height: 1.38; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">bottom thirty</span></a><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; text-indent: 36pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on the Corruption Percentage Index of 2015. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.38; text-indent: 36pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Additionally, it has become clear the the appeasement of elites did little in the way of persuading the general public. Though the peace settlement was signed in 1997, fighting in the periphery of the nation did not reduce until 2001 (coinciding with Operation Enduring Freedom, as it hindered the Taliban’s ability to fund the UTO). Thus, the peace settlement was unable to address the root causes of the conflict. As a result, we see the current state of Tajikistan. As little has been done to actually ease the tensions between the current government and the Islamic roots within the nation, there is an increasing presence of violence. </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Therefore, without addressing the root cause of conflict, the centralized government has been able to increase religious repression in the wake of Islamophobia throughout the region. </span></div>
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<a href="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/XVCRYpQMOfjb8eYlCGm6BAyZqL2TI3BP5iBMgM7qrXCaRpwdc0UdBJkJHfNPAGuxP-vlboUXSH1gu-HLZikpql_UAmO0mx8oAla5r_HPCjW50GYT-vnOMvsMAk_B391VmAV-JXGh" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Tajikistan beard crackdown" border="0" height="169" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/XVCRYpQMOfjb8eYlCGm6BAyZqL2TI3BP5iBMgM7qrXCaRpwdc0UdBJkJHfNPAGuxP-vlboUXSH1gu-HLZikpql_UAmO0mx8oAla5r_HPCjW50GYT-vnOMvsMAk_B391VmAV-JXGh" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" title="Tajikistan beard crackdown" width="264" /></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In January 2016, the Tajik police reported that they had </span><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tajikistan-police-convince-1700-women-remove-headscarves-shave-beards-13000-men-1539188" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“convinced” 1,700</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> women to remove their hijabs and 13,000 men to shave their beards. In addition to this, the federal government has deemed it illegal to enter a religious institution under the age of eighteen, and has restricted parents from naming their children anything that sounds too “Arabic” </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (or IRPT) has had a stabilizing effect within the post-war nation for nearly two decades. As a symbol of moderate Islamism, the IRPT was the only Muslim party within the region of Central Asia. Their presence was particularly unique given the one-party domination found within </span><a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkmenistan-president-idUKKCN0VO202" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Turkmenistan</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/did-kazakhstans-elections-matter/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Kazakhstan</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and the outlaw of religious based parties in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Though this all changed in August 2015. Despite their 40,000 members spread throughout 58 regional branches, Tajikistan’s Justice Ministry ruled to dissolve the party citing a lack of membership. Tensions were further escalated on </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/tajik-policemen-killed-attacks-state-buildings-150904153919716.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">September 4, 2015 </span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">when an armed attack was perpetrated against a state security building in the capital city of Dushanbe. The attack resulted in the death of nine police officers and seventeen militants. The Tajik government declared that the attacks originated from Deputy Defense Minister Abduhalim Nazarzoda, whom was a IRPT member and active opposition fighter during the civil war. On </span><a href="http://www.rferl.mobi/a/tajikistan-renegade-general-killed/27251919.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">September 15, 2015</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Nazarzoda and ten of his supporters were killed during a battle with government security force. As a result, the Tajikistan government has used the recent attacks to declare the IRPT a terrorist group stating that </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/11/trouble-tajikistan-151104085616528.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">the party has aspirations similar to those of ISIL</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Soon after, President Emomali Rakhmon passed a motion to declare himself </span><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3352632/Tajikistan-parliament-votes-president-leader-nation.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“Leader of the Nation”</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for life and gave him and his family life-long immunity. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So where do we go from here? Given the current state of Tajikistan, it is hard to ignore the need for conflict prevention measures. However, it is also difficult to induce international interest within the region, thus the most likely assistance will have to come either domestically or regionally. Though t</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">he</span><a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52122#.VwVxPeArL8h" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black;"> United Nations</span></span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> has openly condemned the central government’s actions, little has been done to stop the fight against the Islamic</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> roots of the nation. Accordingly, there is little hope to stop Tajikistan from spiraling back into a civil war. However, the Tajik story should not be lost within the narrative of conflict management. The General Agreement stands to demonstrate importance of measuring success on long-term peace, rather than prioritizing short-term stability.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Recommended readings </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Grant R. Smith, “Tajikistan: The Rocky Road to Peace,” </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Central Asian Survey</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 18, no. 2 (1999):243-251</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Sumie Nakaya, “Aid and Transition From a War Economy to an Oligarchy in Post-war Tajikistan,” </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Central Asian Survey </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 28(3) (2009): 259-273.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-c86fa83d-ed56-a572-5e27-1e93b1c46dfa"></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Torjesen, Stina and S. Neil MacFarlane, "R before D: The Case of Post-Conflict Reintegration in Tajikistan," </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conflict, Security & Development</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 7, no. 2 (2007): 311-332.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14371821218753361991noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-83850739399293785052016-04-06T13:12:00.004-07:002016-04-06T13:13:18.265-07:00Existential Conflicts and Cost Insulation: Understanding the Duration of the South African Border War<div style="border-bottom: solid #4F81BD 1.0pt; border: none; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: accent1; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0cm 0cm 4.0pt 0cm;">
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Existential Conflicts and Cost Insulation:</span></div>
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<span style="color: #3d85c6; font-size: large; line-height: 115%;"><i>Understanding the Duration of the</i></span><span style="color: #3d85c6; font-size: large; line-height: 115%;"><i> South African Border War</i></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMwh5UJDRXxeAfpTYUQkyjiPEzWj6behRBOT9D27KmNZPaQn1XOyoqyGehaItX7nwRUHy1jNVewjlGM_be3XljFJ9Kl_EDd1UcsfsoD821T1glZnWi17gKfowrJj3hgUmWHi1d4VDMqUg/s1600/%2524R48TPZ8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMwh5UJDRXxeAfpTYUQkyjiPEzWj6behRBOT9D27KmNZPaQn1XOyoqyGehaItX7nwRUHy1jNVewjlGM_be3XljFJ9Kl_EDd1UcsfsoD821T1glZnWi17gKfowrJj3hgUmWHi1d4VDMqUg/s320/%2524R48TPZ8.jpg" width="320" /></a>By: <b>Matthew Batten-Carew</b></div>
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The conflict known variously as
the South African Border War, the Namibian War of Independence, or the Angolan
Bush War, was an incredibly complex, 23 year long struggle between South
Africa, a well-established colonial state fighting a losing battle against
majority rule, and the <a href="https://eisa.org.za/wep/namoverview6.htm">South West African People's Organization (SWAPO)</a>, a political party turned national liberation movement whose struggle was carried on by a relatively small
number of insurgents. Both groups were supported by a number of other actors,
falling as they did across the First World-Third World divide, as well as on
either side of the Cold War, with the United States <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/31/world/from-old-files-a-new-story-of-us-role-in-angolan-war.html">generally supporting South Africa</a> and its proxies while the Soviet Union <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/union-soviet-socialist-republic-ussr-and-anti-apartheid-struggle">supported SWAPO</a> with funding,
supplies and military advisors.</div>
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The conflict was over the territory which comprises present-day Namibia, but back then as South West Africa. This former colony, previously mandated to South Africa by the League of Nations, had been
incorporated as the country's fifth province after it refused to cede the territory to the newly formed United Nations in 1946. Following an <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/namibia/1966-10-01/south-west-africa-case-what-happened">International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling</a> that South Africa illegally controlled the territory of Namibia,
SWAPO, now able to portray itself as the protagonist in an independence struggle against an unrepentant colonial power, carried out is <a href="http://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries/namibia/history">first attack</a> on South Africa on August 26, 1966.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTrvJTJfT50qhxJKkFk6jQVeUmAgCWVyAxQSa47E_1a1OQUhCgkEIX2wfSgA-67zmUui397ci3O-USu7SW_zdY0N9cMH285Ysx9fupnAA0rgaBNlOlNfRGFlo0oHowrqM41LCD7C8fQdc/s1600/namibia_01.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTrvJTJfT50qhxJKkFk6jQVeUmAgCWVyAxQSa47E_1a1OQUhCgkEIX2wfSgA-67zmUui397ci3O-USu7SW_zdY0N9cMH285Ysx9fupnAA0rgaBNlOlNfRGFlo0oHowrqM41LCD7C8fQdc/s320/namibia_01.gif" width="320" /></a>While it was clear that for SWAPO that there was no going back once the conflict began, South Africa had a similarly all-or-nothing perspective on the conflict. For South Africa, the international
situation was integral to its motivations for staying in the war. Not only was the UN seen as supporting
SWAPO, both due to the <a href="http://www.g77.org/doc/">majority</a> of its constituents states being post-colonial
nations and its recognition of the ICJ ruling against South Africa, but it had
also come under an <a href="http://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/south-africa-non-mandatory">arms embargo</a> due to its actions in terms of its systematic discrimination against its black African population. This opposition to the Apartheid
regime was also reflected in the views of its neighbours, the majority of whom
offered <a href="http://www.sundaynews.co.zw/frontline-states-and-african-liberation/">funding, supporting, and even basing</a> to groups, both peaceful and
militant, trying to bring about majority rule in South Africa. As the Border
War dragged on, more and more of South Africa's neighbours became independent
and began supporting these movements. The fight in Namibia thus became about
maintaining a <a href="http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1966/11/20/page/8/article/afrikanders-hold-vital-stakes-in-south-west-africa-mandate/index.html">buffer zone</a> between South Africa and the states supporting these
movements, which it saw as having the potential to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/sites/default/files/Fronline%20States.pdf">destabilize its Apartheid government</a>.</div>
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However, the war between South Africa and
SWAPO was never that simple. SWAPO was largely based in Angola,
and so the twists and turns of the conflicts in that country, first represented by the Angolan
<a href="https://www.issafrica.org/pubs/books/Angola/4cornwell.pdf">War for Independence</a> against Portugal, and then <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/april/25/newsid_4754000/4754581.stm">after Portugal's withdrawal</a> in
1975, the Angolan <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/angolan-civil-war-1975-2002-brief-history">Civil War</a>, had profound effects on the course of the Border
War. Portugal's withdrawal took pressure off SWAPO bases, meaning that South
Africa had to engage in cross border incursions to strike at their opponents.
The most dramatic of these, <a href="http://www.ajol.info/index.php/smsajms/article/viewFile/89173/78727">Operation Savannah</a> (1975-1976), contributed to the
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1987/02/01/magazine/cuba-s-strange-mission-in-angola.html?pagewanted=all">Cuban intervention</a> in Angola on the side of the Movement for the Liberation of
the People of Angola (<a href="http://www.britannica.com/topic/Popular-Movement-for-the-Liberation-of-Angola">MPLA</a>), as South Africa targeted them due to their backing
of SWAPO. With Portugal gone, South Africa picked <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/angolan-civil-war-1975-2002-brief-history">its own proxy</a> in the war,
<a href="http://www.britannica.com/topic/UNITA">UNITA</a>, and would be in and out of Angola until the end of the war in 1988.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0a65pN5gctbufxcINRKLMCTTGbw_0iZMXrpNrhrgveSNsEiWDV7R2v1m550L3FKj42ZU_rvBQ1mEjCWc0CtCl2D_JrqJftYRrV9JrlaGj_G84SqNZX_nid4rXwKJEDGd1CciFBkCbLkQ/s1600/%2524R1SZUA4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0a65pN5gctbufxcINRKLMCTTGbw_0iZMXrpNrhrgveSNsEiWDV7R2v1m550L3FKj42ZU_rvBQ1mEjCWc0CtCl2D_JrqJftYRrV9JrlaGj_G84SqNZX_nid4rXwKJEDGd1CciFBkCbLkQ/s640/%2524R1SZUA4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
By this time, South Africa and
its opponents, including SWAPO, the MPLA and Cuba, had fought each other to a
standstill. South Africa was having trouble supplying its over-extended forces and the arms
embargoes were taking their toll, <a href="http://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/south_africa">strengthened as they were by the UN over time</a>. South Africa's development of nuclear weapons as a bluff against further
Cuban action is also seen as a <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/pretoria-came-close-to-dropping-nuclear-bomb-on-luanda-with-troops-under-pressure-in-angola-south-1500805.html">key factor</a> in pushing it out of the war.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-v0PW8Tw2PksdVVFJA7s8U-xLehZFH0Fh115MZtpgdxsvhYNsgbeHreHQ3cdbdKVdR-cvt-chVAWVaSNv5o6jbKO-n6Eyb3v8MUrqBkRK0OuRsHtdazV6hzT7Mbn0UlIMx9_myVgc8RE/s1600/1e8aa688f759e2fef9f23d88dfa6e39a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-v0PW8Tw2PksdVVFJA7s8U-xLehZFH0Fh115MZtpgdxsvhYNsgbeHreHQ3cdbdKVdR-cvt-chVAWVaSNv5o6jbKO-n6Eyb3v8MUrqBkRK0OuRsHtdazV6hzT7Mbn0UlIMx9_myVgc8RE/s320/1e8aa688f759e2fef9f23d88dfa6e39a.jpg" width="219" /></a>The big question about this conflict however is how it went on as long as it did, without South Africa, which had a
government legitimized through a democratic system (despite its deep flaws), or SWAPO, a
relatively ragtag independence movement propped up by external backers,
throwing in the towel. As noted above, both sides viewed this conflict as
existential, one in terms of claiming dignity and sovereignty, the other in
terms of maintaining their political system. This made it extremely difficult
for either side to compromise. But beyond this, both sides excelled at cost
insulation, allowing them to fight despite incurring considerable attrition. On
SWAPO's side, its large number of <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/namibian-struggle-independence-%26ndash%3B-1966-%26ndash%3B-1990-%26ndash%3B-historical-background">friends and allies</a> willing to back it,
including the Soviet Union, meant that if one backer faltered, others were
there to take their place. On the South African side, <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.529.2334&rep=rep1&type=pdf">censorship of the press</a> by the Ministry of Defense, <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/31/annals-of-wars-we-dont-know-about-the-south-african-border-war-of-1966-1989-2/">resourceful recruiting practices</a> (including attracting ex-SWAPO soldiers, Angolans and Namibians to
fight for them), and carefully <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/31/annals-of-wars-we-dont-know-about-the-south-african-border-war-of-1966-1989-2/">calculated political risks</a> (such as planning
strikes into Angola to maximize pain to SWAPO while minimizing the international
outcry) were all key aspects of their operations.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Despite the existential nature of the conflict, and both
sides cost insulation measures, ultimately South Africa was ground down by
SWAPO's external support and the UN arms embargoes it faced that eroded
its technological superiority. The <a href="http://www.kas.de/upload/Publikationen/2014/namibias_foreign_relations/Namibias_Foreign_Relations_saunders.pdf">overwhelming international support</a> for
SWAPO, and consequent opposition to South Africa, can thus be seen to have played, in many
ways, a decisive role in motivating its complete withdrawal from Namibia by late 1989.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17441639845427151197noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-57577276451140943202016-04-06T09:41:00.000-07:002016-04-06T13:51:02.163-07:00Why the peace in South Sudan will not hold<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGx61sYAij6qKMc1uxppE7aNhZzJ_ftTYMoaaBbZJ8uGefqttEJzsrLICV1f-iOd035AfH1wfdd3_ZsfHhll1I9UDlO4ZgxTX9iqD1su07l869_kTswOzOLU5i0Pu02xSmfywfEiJofs/s1600/Independence.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGx61sYAij6qKMc1uxppE7aNhZzJ_ftTYMoaaBbZJ8uGefqttEJzsrLICV1f-iOd035AfH1wfdd3_ZsfHhll1I9UDlO4ZgxTX9iqD1su07l869_kTswOzOLU5i0Pu02xSmfywfEiJofs/s320/Independence.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">On August 26<sup>th</sup>, 2015 South
Sudanese hopes were raised once again. The country, independent only since
2011, appeared to be emerging at last from a violent civil conflict which exacerbated
divisions in the newly created country. Although the peace process is still
underway, much of the initial hope and optimism has vanished. The process has
been fraught with broken ceasefires, deadlines, and accusations of major human
rights abuses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The crisis was triggered in
December 2013 as fighting broke out between President Salva Kiir and
Vice-President Riek Machar over accusations that Machar was plotting a coup to
overthrow the Kiir government. Although the conflict clearly began as political
it quickly took on ethnic dimensions with fighting spreading across the
country. Forces loyal to Kiir, a member of the Dinka ethnicity, and forces loyal
to Riek Machar, a member of the Nuer ethnicity, remain tense even now that
large-scale violence has stopped.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://igad.int/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1193:agreement-on-the-resolution-of-the-conflict-in-the-republic-of-south-sudan&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=150">The Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan</a> (ARCSS) in August of 2015 was the result of major pressure by the international
community and regional actors. Numerous conflict management techniques have
been applied in an attempt to end the conflict including: Ugandan military
intervention on the side of President Kiir, UN peacekeeping troops (in place
since 2011), sanctions, and intensive diplomacy. The agreement itself takes
into account many aspects of power sharing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Yet despite these numerous conflict
management techniques, the peace process in South Sudan is halting and fragile.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Tip of the Iceberg<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Governance in South Sudan remains
a major issue. <a href="http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/south-sudan/south-sudan-economic-outlook/">Oil</a> accounts for roughly 95% of government revenue and falling global
prices, complications with pipelines, and a lack of production during the
conflict have put extreme pressure on fiscal reserves. South Sudan also faces a major lack of infrastructure. Almost 60% of the
country becomes inaccessible by road during the rainy season, <a href="http://www.unocha.org/south-sudan">complicating the deliveryof humanitarian assistance</a>. This is especially significant as roughly half the population faces moderate or
severe food insecurity. <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southsudan/overview">Literacy statistics</a> remain among the worst in the world, with female literacy
rates at only 16% and males at 40%. In addition to these structural challenges are issues resulting directly from
or contributing to the conflict – ethnic mistrust, massive internal
displacement, widespread corruption and ethnic patronage, and large numbers of
armed civilians. Even if the peace agreement can resolve the situation between
Kiir and Machar and provide assurances for ethnic security within the country,
governance in South Sudan will not be a simple task for many years to come. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Managing Spoilers<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFXwyrJSpG1hf_iD384RKmvJDvJaNe32VfcjLOXMQhn2oIrpEl80PTdtHPVMzOFclZo020MA5zAoTnA40-taCeTg5ewoKsgyRFBZ08qSGXey3MQrvsANTEBDgdq12JedcYB5zNYrzUMu8/s1600/SS+leaders.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFXwyrJSpG1hf_iD384RKmvJDvJaNe32VfcjLOXMQhn2oIrpEl80PTdtHPVMzOFclZo020MA5zAoTnA40-taCeTg5ewoKsgyRFBZ08qSGXey3MQrvsANTEBDgdq12JedcYB5zNYrzUMu8/s320/SS+leaders.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In Stephen Stedman’s seminal 1997
paper entitled “Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes” he provides a typology of
spoilers and a theory of spoiler management that fits well in the South Sudanese
context. Both Machar and Kiir appear to fit classification as greedy spoilers
and the strategies pursued by international actors (custodians of the peace
process in Stedman’s language) have largely aligned with those he proposed.
These techniques, (inducement, socialization and coercion) have brought the
parties to the negotiating table and pushed them back each time the peace
process has threatened to derail. Yet despite massive efforts by the international community, this peace is not
self-perpetuating – without the sustained involvement of custodians of the
peace, a resurgence of violence is highly likely. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">ARCSS Inadequacies<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">All of these reasons might be
surmountable if it weren’t for the fact that the peace process did not address
the root causes of the conflict. The agreement implements power sharing in
South Sudan but largely returns the country to the status quo pre-civil
conflict. One of the major changes – the creation of a truth commission and a
hybrid war crimes court – is promising for building trust in the population but
is likely increasing resistance by both parties to fully implementing the
ARCSS for fear of prosecution. Without major reforms changing the power dynamics within the country
spoiler management can only help prevent large returns to violence. It will not
provide long-term peace. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">What should be done?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Recommendation 1:</i> Keep up the pressure on parties to the conflict
to continue their engagement in the peace process. Negative peace is better
than no peace. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Recommendation 2:</i> Provide assistance to meet milestones within the
agreement and the goal of a 2018 election (infrastructure, census, political
parties).Although elections should not be rushed, the process needs to be
continued for the government to be viewed with legitimacy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Recommendation 3:</i> Formalize and expand power sharing agreements
within the permanent constitution. The final constitution must take into
account criticisms of Presidential control and widespread allegations of
corruption. Despite problems with preserving the status quo, power sharing
agreements can help to rebuild trust in an ethnically and politically divided
country.</span></div>
<div>
<div id="ftn7">
</div>
</div>
Jasmine Dannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01703061030012508902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-30407921145206856282016-04-06T08:38:00.000-07:002016-04-07T13:38:49.051-07:00The Weak Anaconda: Why the American Surge Could Not Defeat the Taliban<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrxs5NvX_JDTEZIQkbP8T47RJmyQ2N07F31y-Hw5OiX1A0Bm0SixpCY5E6e5q9OOZoKN0wdejMLywR3TnfnSTbaX0tnpMfWVQfzlk2rRw9yKX-ZhGWNgA71X2ny9aB_iCJKMRa0Ntf9Qg/s1600/Afghan-army-training.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrxs5NvX_JDTEZIQkbP8T47RJmyQ2N07F31y-Hw5OiX1A0Bm0SixpCY5E6e5q9OOZoKN0wdejMLywR3TnfnSTbaX0tnpMfWVQfzlk2rRw9yKX-ZhGWNgA71X2ny9aB_iCJKMRa0Ntf9Qg/s320/Afghan-army-training.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
A surge of American troops descended on the Taliban for 18
months beginning in 2010 and succeeded at taking key areas from the rebels.
After 5 years of increasing Taliban resistance, the surge forced violence to
its lowest level since 2005.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
The increased pressure succeeded in dropping insurgent gains and morale, pushing the Taliban to seek peace negotiations.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">[3]</span></span></span></span></a> But, by the fall of 2011, it became clear that the surge was not able to crush the Taliban indefinitely.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">[4]</span></span></span></span></a> The violence continued, and the Taliban waited patiently in their Pakistani safe heaven for the Coalition troops to leave and open the way for the Taliban to retake Afghanistan.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">[5]</span></span></span></span></a> After all, coalition forces announced most of their troops would leave by the end of 2014.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
If the surge was the silver bullet the Coalition had been seeking, what went wrong?<br />
<br />
Before diving into that question, let us first review why the surge was deemed necessary.<br />
<br />
Following
9/11 the United States attacked the Taliban in Afghanistan, a group that had
been in power for years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The American forces quickly
removed the Taliban from power, and the insurgents retreated to the south
of the country and into Pakistan.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;">However, the success faded within
a few years, and the Taliban began to re-emerge – leading to increasing levels
of violence.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;">Seeing the Coalition forces –
composed of NATO countries like Canada and the United Kingdom – had not been
able to crush the Taliban, Obama announced in 2009 he would send an additional
33 thousand troops into Afghanistan for 18 months to train more police and army
forces, in addition to thousands of civilians to help build stronger
institutions in the country.</span><span style="text-indent: 36pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 36pt;">They dubbed
this operation “Anaconda”: a counterinsurgency strategy whereby Coalition
forces would apply pressure to all factors fuelling the insurgents, including
attacking them militarily and “winning the hearts and minds” of the Afghan
population – thus denying the Taliban potential soldiers.</span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="text-indent: 36pt;" title="">[2]</a></span></span></span><br />
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><br /></span></span>
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="text-indent: 36pt;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference">But as seen above, the Taliban was weakened but not crushed. Why?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A number of
scholars pointed to the short attention paid by the civil-military
Anaconda operation to building stronger accountable institutions in
Afghanistan. In fact, Frances Z. Brown, an international fellow at the Council
of Foreign Relations at the U.S. Institute of Peace, argues that <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#http://www.the-american-interest.com/2012/10/09/bureaucracy-does-its-thing-again/">the
surge actually undermined the Coalition’s ability to foster local legitimacy of
the Afghan government.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One of the
elements of the surge included the provision of funds to build infrastructure
such as hospitals and schools. The goal: to help the Afghan local governments
win legitimacy among the population and, by doing so, to decrease their need to
seek the Taliban for the provision of services. Brown argues that in this the
surge succeeded – temporarily.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The
majority of funds went to areas where governance was lowest, and where the
Taliban was strongest.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn7" name="_ftnref7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Because of the weak government institutions, the money usually ended up with
district governors rather than local ministries, like the education ministry.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> As
a result, while the power of the district governors increased, local
institutions did not gain legitimacy or strength.<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[9]</span></span></a></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 36pt;">But once the funds dried up, the
district governors would lose their newfound legitimacy, local institutions
would remain weak, and the population would once again seek local warlords for
the services other institutions could not provide – including security.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn10" name="_ftnref10" style="text-indent: 36pt;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[10]</span></span></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
According
to Brown the surge was not only unable to build stronger institutions, it may
actually have made them weaker.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“Because
these new, inflated budgets came directly from Uncle Sam, the district
governors had every incentive to prioritize American requests,” Brown said.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn12" name="_ftnref12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As a result, the priority placed on engaging with local institutions and
population came second – thus decreasing the strength of institutions that
included local health ministries and the local police.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn13" name="_ftnref13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Therefore,
while the surge may have been effective at increasing the number of Afghan
soldiers and police officers, it was not able to build strong institutions that
were accountable to the population.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn14" name="_ftnref14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Corruption thus continued within the civil service and within military
and police institutions – institutions that did not need the local population’s
approval to survive.<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[15]</span></span></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="text-indent: 36pt;">The police thus became more
likely to coerce civilians and mistreat them, leading to increased insecurity
and decreased legitimacy of the Afghan government.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftn16" name="_ftnref16" style="text-indent: 36pt;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[16]</span></span></span></a><span style="text-indent: 36pt;"> Such
behaviour failed to “win the hearts and minds” of the population.</span><span style="text-indent: 36pt;"> </span></div>
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<span style="text-indent: 36pt;">The result: the surge’s success
was temporary. This shows that while more money and troops can help hurt insurgents,
they cannot destroy them without fixing an issue that strengthens the insurgency: weak
governance. But building governance takes time.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Jamie
Lynn <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">de Costier, “Negotiating
the Great Game: Ending the U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, </i>38,
no. 2 (Summer, 2014): <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">77</i>, </span>http://proxy.library.carleton.ca/login?url=http://search.proquest.com.proxy.library.carleton.ca/docview/1565808364?accountid=9894<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 76. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 82.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 84. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn5;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 88.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div id="ftn6" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn6;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Frances
Z. <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Brown, “Bureaucracy Does
its Thing Again,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The American Interest</i>
8, no. 2 (October 9, 2012): 41, http://www.the-american-interest.com/2012/10/09/bureaucracy-does-its-thing-again/.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn7" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref7" name="_ftn7" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn7;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn8" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref8" name="_ftn8" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn8;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[8]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn9" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref9" name="_ftn9" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn9;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[9]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn10" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref10" name="_ftn10" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn10;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[10]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn11" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref11" name="_ftn11" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn11;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[11]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn12" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref12" name="_ftn12" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn12;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[12]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 42. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn13" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref13" name="_ftn13" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn13;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[13]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn14" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref14" name="_ftn14" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn14;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[14]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid, 43.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn15" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref15" name="_ftn15" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn15;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[15]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ibid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn16" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7385270543584342264#_ftnref16" name="_ftn16" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn16;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[16]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Abdulkader <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sinno, “Partisan
Intervention and the Transformation of Afghanistan’s Civil War,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The American Historical Review, </i>120, no.
5 (2015): 1819, </span>doi:10.1093/ahr/120.5.1811.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13552237148210311613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-61785294542927110412016-04-06T08:30:00.000-07:002016-04-07T12:26:45.273-07:00The moving target of peacemaking: lessons from power sharing in Burundi<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxQYLT07zgONfyDFScM2_1zKaRz8wc0_7YW27K2UlK88dfSGBVcBou2F1f2Zm0HiXwrh3RvyIX8I-hVGiZjQIKPXztzqbZ23A-_drf3FPHxKOttsIODhHyf-a7fjzn4v-_McKJF3G5ZX0/s1600/Flag_of_Burundi.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxQYLT07zgONfyDFScM2_1zKaRz8wc0_7YW27K2UlK88dfSGBVcBou2F1f2Zm0HiXwrh3RvyIX8I-hVGiZjQIKPXztzqbZ23A-_drf3FPHxKOttsIODhHyf-a7fjzn4v-_McKJF3G5ZX0/s200/Flag_of_Burundi.png" width="200" /></span></a></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The most recent political
crisis in Burundi raises some timely concerns about whether the state is poised
to slip back into old patterns of escalating violence between an ethnic Hutu
majority and Tutsi minority.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://africanarguments.org/2016/01/22/in-the-shadow-of-genocides-past-can-burundi-be-pulled-back-from-the-brink" target="_blank">For much of Burundi’s history</a>, the
country has been ruled by a one-party state of Tutsi-dominated military elites.
Burundian leaders have had a habit of coming to power through orchestrating
military coups and imposing similarly exclusionist policies along ethnic lines.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">In the early 1990s,
Burundian President Pierre Buyoya succumbed to domestic and international
pressures to initiate democratic reforms, including multi-party elections.
These reforms were quickly swept up in the chaos of the ensuing 1993 election
in which Hutu<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>politician<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Melchior Ndadye<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and his party, the Front for Democracy
in Burundi (FRODEBU),<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>won by a
landslide. Defeat of the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>incumbent
Union for National Progress (UPRONA) and associated Tutsi interests initiated
tremendous backlash from Tutsi communities who viewed results as an unfair Hutu
victory. Soon after,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>extremist
factions within the Tutsi-dominated army assassinated Ndadaye and launched a
coup.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>The assassination
galvanized<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>FRODEBU<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>supporters and incited escalating
rounds of ethnic violence from both sides, resulting in thousands of Hutu and
Tutsi casualties. The ensuing civil war finally concluded with a negotiated
settlement over a decade after it started. Power sharing became a central
component of the final agreement as well as the strategies involved in managing
the conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">While many peacemaking
strategies aim to facilitate the bargaining process for peace and its related
commitment problems (Stedman’s<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20634/Spoiler_Problems_in_Peace_Processes.pdf" target="_blank">spoiler management</a>, Walter’s<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_2002_s06/laptop_s06/current%20projects/Cox_Low%20Robinson%20Book%20chapter/Cox_Low%20Book%20chapter/walter%20-%20end%20of%20civil%20wars%20IO.pdf" target="_blank">outside enforcement</a>), power sharing
has found widespread appeal because its implementation is adaptive to the
changing circumstances of reaching an agreement and governing by that
settlement. Admittedly, practical implementation of power sharing has sometimes
failed to live up to conceptual expectations. However, as conflict management
strategies go, power sharing has the advantage of being able to identify,
address and sometimes obscure different kinds of group dynamics and demands
depending on what a particular negotiation calls for. Therefore, evaluating the
success of power sharing in one particular instance—the Burundian Civil
War—means determining how mediators used it as a tool for responding to
tensions between short-term and long-term aims during peace talks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br />
<b>Forms of Power Sharing</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">It’s helpful to conceive of
power-sharing as a spectrum of institutional arrangements based on different
rationalities for group behaviour under competitive conditions. Different
models of power allocation will operate by different levers to move the site of
ethnopolitical rivalry from the battlefield to the political arena, as well as
keep it there over time. The resulting arrangement may emphasise different
actors or sectors in society, as well as provide them with varying forms or degrees
of power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">On one end
of the power sharing spectrum are dispersive and inclusive institutions, which
rely on diversifying or expanding sites of power across different actors,
institutions and regions (Gates et al 2016; Brancati 2006;<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Lijphart 1969; Horowitz 1991).<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Inclusive and dispersive power sharing
are effective devices for co-opting a ‘moderate core’ of elites to sign onto a
peace agreement and join a transitional government where they will have
significantly expanded spheres of influence. On the other side of the spectrum
are constraining or ‘<a href="https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=FFGNRfzndl8C&oi=fnd&pg=PA51&dq=Power+dividing+as+an+alternative+to+ethnic+power-sharing&ots=PJMEcFypZm&sig=lrfOdhyf5jxolkWQ_Kysin3tR4g#v=onepage&q&f=false" target="_blank">power dividing</a>’ institutions, which<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>balance the control that can be
exercised by a majority in a single governmental body against several
majorities in other organs. Power dividing seeks to reduce the chances that
political leaders will exit a power sharing arrangement in the long-run by
containing the cascade of escalation that groups can initiate through defection
from the political process, thereby reducing its potential gains.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br />
<b><span style="background: white;">Power Sharing as Conflict Management</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Despite the range of differences,
power sharing models share two main dimensions of success as conflict
management strategies in civil war settings: the first is to<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i style="font-family: 'times new roman';">establish mutually
acceptable terms</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>by which
rival groups will prefer to secure their demands through power-sharing
guarantees over violent alternatives. The appeal of these postwar institutions,
in theory, carries the credibility of group commitments during the transition
period. The second benchmark is to build stable arrangement of postwar power
sharing institutions and rules, which largely comply with the initial
bargaining solution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">The juxtaposition of these
two measures reveals an evident tension between short-term and long-term successes.
Balancing these two dimensions is the moving target in many peace processes;
tactics to bolster the likelihood of reaching a settlement generates less
credible power sharing arrangements, but constraining institutions are less
conducive to consensus among elites who seek to maximise their power and
security.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br />
<b>The Arusha Peace Process</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Burundi’s postwar
institutions constitute an<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.issafrica.org/cdburundipeaceagreements/No%201%20arusha.pdf" target="_blank">inclusive power sharing arrangement</a>, characterised
by a mutual veto, reserved legislative seats and executive positions.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>During the Arusha peace process, the
primary objectives were to reach a settlement with adequate buy-in to end
fighting in Burundi and initiate a peaceful transition. Power sharing at this
stage was effectively a<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3993527" target="_blank">strategy
of inclusion</a>: negotiate a solution commensurate with the right demands for
the right people in the right<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>bargaining
positions at the right time. The institutional<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">design<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></i>aspect of power sharing (whereby
power dividing considerations gain prominence) necessarily took a backseat to
the task of persuading elites that settlement would grant them reliable access
to power within the political process without taking up arms to do it. These
kinds of provisions and institutions were appealing for participating elites
who would ultimately wield these newly expanded stations of control. To
incorporate inclusive power sharing into the settlement, mediators at the
Arusha peace process successfully aggregated divergent interests, views and
levels of commitment across and within rival parties into a manageable
‘moderate core.' The resulting power sharing arrangement between ethnically
mixed parties effectively de-polarised the political arena and presented an
acceptable preference to continued conflict.</span></div>
</div>
Queena Lihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11676554278453400705noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-17410463306940980902016-04-06T08:15:00.000-07:002016-04-06T08:17:46.980-07:00<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Evaluating Peacekeeping Efforts in Bosnia </span></b></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;">By: Jessica Gawn </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Background</b></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE27NZfOtoU2-QwL1j73rmj1j1sh-xY6s_gUP_eQL7oHexaoFXVsLQz65IzRncrwLQM2x81xSL2WVA-KQO3VlBYWoWdgZ1ynXhL6LGx7ZuoTLKczLYTlkUNsj6IV-LDPnxd2qmc8OrUOwB/s1600/Bosnia+demographics.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE27NZfOtoU2-QwL1j73rmj1j1sh-xY6s_gUP_eQL7oHexaoFXVsLQz65IzRncrwLQM2x81xSL2WVA-KQO3VlBYWoWdgZ1ynXhL6LGx7ZuoTLKczLYTlkUNsj6IV-LDPnxd2qmc8OrUOwB/s320/Bosnia+demographics.png" width="185" /></a><span style="font-kerning: none;">Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) was one of the six republics of the former Federal People’s Republic of Yugoslavia. Following the 1991 dissolution, tensions intensified between the three largest ethnic groups; Muslims, Serbians and Croats. The Bosnian Serbs and Croats wanted BiH to be divided along ethnic lines, with the ultimate aim of seceding entirely. The Bosnian Muslims, on the other hand, were looking to create a unified state; where they, as the largest ethnic group, would have the most power.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;">Following a failed referendum on independence in February 1992, the international community became increasingly concerned about the conflict brewing in BiH. Unfortunately, diplomatic efforts to mediate the growing conflict h</span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">ad no effect. In April 1992, the Muslims acquired arms and declared a unitary republic, triggering a massive retaliation by the Serbians. The fighting that followed was vicious, characterized by ethnic cleansing and war crimes. Mediation efforts were largely unsuccessful until the Dayton Agreement in December 1995. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Peacekeeping Before Dayton </b></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;">The United Nations (UN) tried to resolve the conflict by implementing an arms embargo, creating a “no fly zone,” establishing a war crimes tribunal, and through the efforts of the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR). These interventions were unable to achieve the core peacekeeping goals of violence abatement, conflict containment and conflict settlement. UNPROFOR had a limited mandate and inadequate manpower to successfully manage the conflict. Its mandate focused on delivering humanitarian relief and protecting ‘Safe Havens.’ The majority of its troops were supplied by the European Union’s largest military powers, France and Britain. In spite of this, warring factions repeatedly overwhelmed peacekeeping forces. UNPROFOR’s failings culminated in the Srebrenica massacre of July 1995, that killed over 8000 civilians, later deemed a genocide by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Peacekeepers were also unable to prevent other regional actors from influencing the conflict. Slobodan Milošević’s Serbian government and the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA) provided troops and weapons to the Bosnian Serbs which further escalated the conflict. Various peace treaties were proposed by the UN, EC and the Contract Group, all of which failed because of “spoilers” in the negotiation process. </span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHuMy37stJoWfrYnPztIRiT6aoEVMcF7IpXUmGoYKwwFM-AHVi02sc4o78cyxUK_fcOnLBPOhO-QkYjMocc9UKAoBqagRWuxxd9t8vof7pYPoAT2rjIwZ97CMbsv2eoUjXpozfsYqPE7F/s1600/bosnia+mladic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHuMy37stJoWfrYnPztIRiT6aoEVMcF7IpXUmGoYKwwFM-AHVi02sc4o78cyxUK_fcOnLBPOhO-QkYjMocc9UKAoBqagRWuxxd9t8vof7pYPoAT2rjIwZ97CMbsv2eoUjXpozfsYqPE7F/s320/bosnia+mladic.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Commander General Ratko Mladic, Srebrenica 1995</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<b style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;"><br /></b></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<b style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">Peacekeeping After Dayton </b><span style="font-kerning: none;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">The Dayton Agreement of 1995 was a major achievement for conflict mediation in Bosnia. The issue of spoilers was resolved, following an escalation in the use of force by the international community. Stronger engagement by the United States was key to the success of these efforts. Following the destruction of the Sarajevo market in 1995, an ultimatum was issued to General Mladić, who was leading the Bosnian Serbs. When Mladić refused to comply, NATO launched a series of air strikes</span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;"> </span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">which caused enough devastation to get the Serbians to the negotiating table. The bombardment created a “mutually hurting stalemate” for all parties, which meant that the mere threat of withdrawal of peacekeeping forces was enough to prevent any further attempts of spoilers to stall negotiations. The agreement also called on</span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;"> </span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;">the parties to accept the NATO led implementation force’s (IFOR) continued presence, accept the new boundaries (51/49 split for Muslims and Serbs respectively), and support an election program and the creation of a new constitution. While these measures did not resolve all of the tensions between the ethnic groups it is important to acknowledge the successes of Dayton in achieving core peacekeeping goals. Crucially, it prevented further violence in BiH. The UN Preventative Deployment Force (UNPREDEP), which replaced UNPROFOR succeeded in preventing the spread of the conflict to Macedonia. Finally, while many Muslims criticized the agreement for essentially rewarding war criminals, there was consensus that the agreement was better than continuing the war, thereby settling the conflict.</span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;"> </span><span style="font-kerning: none;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Lessons Learned </b></span></div>
<ol>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">If the international community is going to intervene in a conflict, they must do so decisively. Peacekeeping forces must have enough manpower and supplies to be effective. </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Prevent the escalation of conflict by impeding external support from reaching combatants. Securing borders should be a critical priority to prevent the diffusion of conflict. </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Efforts to manage similar conflicts in the future should focus on managing spoilers. Persistent spoilers extended the duration of conflicts; using coercion to get the actors to the negotiating table is sometimes the best course of action.</span></li>
</ol>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>For more information: </b></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none; text-decoration: underline;">Books</span></div>
<ul>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Evaluating Peace Operations. By: Paul Diehl and Daniel Druckman </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">EU Foreign Policy and Crisis Management Operations. By: Benjamin Pohl </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Challenges to Peacebuilding. Edited by: Edward Newman and Oliver Richmond </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Ending Wars. By: Feargal Cochrane </span></li>
</ul>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none; text-decoration: underline;">Journals</span></div>
<ul>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-kerning: none;">Before and after Dayton: The UN and NATO in the Former Yugoslavia. By: Dick A. Leurdijk. <a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/3993263.pdf?_=1459902050999"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; line-height: normal;">http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/3993263.pdf?_=1459902050999</span></a></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="font-kerning: none;">Dayton Report Card. By: Jane M. O. Sharp. <br />
<a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/2539359.pdf"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; line-height: normal;">http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/2539359.pdf</span></a>. </span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica"; line-height: normal;"></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">The Long, Difficult Road to Dayton: Peace Efforts in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By: Jutta Paczulla. <a href="http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/40204032.pdf"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; line-height: normal;">http://www.jstor.org.proxy.library.carleton.ca/stable/pdf/40204032.pdf</span></a>. </span></li>
</ul>
Bosniabloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578682236954834139noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-10278078335364685262016-04-06T06:52:00.001-07:002016-04-06T06:53:02.074-07:00Lessons from the Angolan Civil War<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="http://media.web.britannica.com/eb-media/56/62256-004-E02E96E3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://media.web.britannica.com/eb-media/56/62256-004-E02E96E3.jpg" height="265" width="320" /></a></div>
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<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->In order to bolster the chances of successfully resolving
conflict, interveners should look to the past in order to avoid committing errors
that caused earlier peace settlements to collapse. The civil war in Angola is
perhaps one of the most illuminating case studies of how efforts to achieve
peace can go awry.<br />
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The Angolan Civil War erupted in 1975 and ended in 2002
after a series of brief interludes, and featured two main combatants—the People’s
Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and the National Union for the
Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Given its control of the capital city,
Luanda, the MPLA served as the quasi-government of Angola during the civil war,
although it struggled to project its authority throughout the rural hinterlands
where UNITA operated. </div>
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The Angolan Civil War was primarily an ideological struggle
in which belligerents sought to gain control over the state. The MPLA, which
adopted a Marxist-Leninist philosophy, derived substantial support from Cuba
and the Soviet Union, whereas the more right-wing UNITA was backed by South Africa
and the United States. This international dimension made Angola one of the
battlefronts of the Cold War, and likely contributed to the conflict’s lengthy
duration. Indeed, whenever one side would gain the upper hand, the other could
count on its international backers to intervene on its behalf. At the height of
its involvement, for example, Cuba had 40,000 troops in Angola fighting in
support of the MPLA. This constant supply of international resources precluded
a mutually hurting stalemate from arising, as each faction never felt exhausted
by the war. </div>
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Foreign interveners finally withdrew from Angola in the late
1980s as the Cold War ran out of steam, and the MPLA and UNITA were left mostly
to their own devices. This allowed the aforementioned stalemate to manifest,
and the international community re-engaged with the conflict, offering
diplomatic support instead of military assistance.</div>
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The first major peace agreement implemented during the
course of the Angolan Civil War was the Bicesse Accords in 1991. This agreement
had four major components: a ceasefire, demobilization, the installment of a UN
observation mission, and a commitment to hold presidential elections 16 months
after the signing of the accords. </div>
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Measuring the success of peace settlements can be challenging,
but if we examine whether the goals of the settlement were achieved, it is
clear that the Bicesse Accords failed miserably. The UN peacekeeping mission
was under-resourced, and the demobilization process shifted the balance of
power in UNITA’s favour, as it maintained 30,000 of its troops to the MPLA’s
10,000. When UNITA lost the presidential election, its leader Jonas Savimbi
cried foul and resumed the fighting.</div>
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</xml><![endif]-->In 1994, international custodians coaxed the disputants back
to the negotiating table, which resulted in the Lusaka Protocol. In many ways,
this agreement was a significant improvement on its predecessor. It installed a
much larger peacekeeping contingent throughout the country, and instead of
holding another round of winner-takes-all elections, a power-sharing arrangement
was implemented which guaranteed both parties a seat at the decision-making
table. By this point, however, the distrust between the MPLA and UNITA was too
strong, and after UNITA’s refusal to cede certain territories under its rule,
the agreement fell apart. It was not until 2002 that Angola’s civil war finally
ended. Savimbi was assassinated by government forces, and UNITA accepted
defeat.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The botched peace process in Angola should serve as a
cautionary tale to the international community. However, it would be a mistake
to assume that efforts towards conflict management should be abandoned
entirely. <b>Instead, four major policy implications should be drawn from the
Angolan Civil War:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1. Concessions should not be granted to total spoilers.
After Savimbi sabotaged the Bicesse Accords, the international community should
not have offered him further inducements in the form of a power-sharing
agreement. This only whet his appetite further, causing the Lusaka Protocol to
collapse. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2. Peace agreements require a robust third-party presence in
order to succeed. Both the Bicesse Accords and the Lusaka Protocol featured
peacekeeping missions that were inadequate in demobilizing the belligerents,
allowing UNITA to easily resume the war.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3. Building on the previous lesson, peacekeeping missions
should be given ample personnel and a strong military mandate. The Bicesse
Accords included little more than 1,000 peacekeepers in total, who were only
mandated to observe the peace process. While the Lusaka Protocol included 7,600
peacekeepers, this was too little, too late. By that point, neither UNITA nor
the MPLA were committed to peace.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4. Winner-takes-all elections could exacerbate conflict if
the loser has no incentive to cooperate with the outcome. In Angola, Savimbi
easily spoiled the outcome as his troops outnumbered UNITA’s.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While these four policy recommendations are not the only
lessons that can be drawn from the Angolan Civil War, they are an appropriate
starting point when considering how to design future peace settlements.<br />
<br />
<i>By Steven Rai </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Recommended Reading:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
"Angolan
Civil War: A Brief History." South African History Online. Accessed April
06, 2016. http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/angolan-civil-war-1975-2002-brief-history.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
"Angola's
First Civil War." Global Security. Accessed April 06, 2016. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/angola-civil-war-1.htm.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
Fortna,
Virginia Page. "A Lost Chance for Peace: The Bicesse Accords in
Angola." <i>Georgetown Journal of International Affairs</i> 4, no. 1
(2003): 73-79.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; text-indent: -36.0pt;">
Spears, Ian
S. "Angola's Elusive Peace: The Collapse of the Lusaka Accord." <i>International
Journal</i> 54, no. 4 (1999): 562-81.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-6201406476334699722016-04-06T06:37:00.001-07:002016-04-06T06:37:50.528-07:00<h1>
<b><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The never ending story: The Sudan and the
limits of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement<o:p></o:p></span></b></h1>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By: Samantha Nicholl<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu_g7q_77vFzTS6UeGxGA5BTYlO6V8BXCfVSiHTT1lajcopQiXHgZqjTx8J4W4Qh5mETxTNbThg8JbmHNH35w-w0bhtPt8vRMLkKLOd6L84RoFQQGKJ0TM4VCX5icvrQv6WRHM8OS6isdN/s1600/cpa+sudan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu_g7q_77vFzTS6UeGxGA5BTYlO6V8BXCfVSiHTT1lajcopQiXHgZqjTx8J4W4Qh5mETxTNbThg8JbmHNH35w-w0bhtPt8vRMLkKLOd6L84RoFQQGKJ0TM4VCX5icvrQv6WRHM8OS6isdN/s320/cpa+sudan.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
Protest on the CPA
in the Sudan in 2009<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
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</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]-->There was mass international attention on
the Sudan in the early 2000s during historic peace talks between the Government
of the Sudan (GoS) and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)
which were designed to bring an end to the longest conflict in Africa at the
time. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed by the GOS and SPLM/A
in 2005 and was credited with bringing an end to the twenty-two year long civil
war. Following the partition of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14089843">South Sudan in 2011</a>,
a possible outcome accounted for in the CPA, the international community patted
itself on the back for a job well done and walked away from the war ravaged Sudan
without looking back. The international focus shifted to the newly independent South
Sudan, a predominantly Christian and Western allied country, and the remaining
agreements under the CPA were left largely unimplemented in the remainder of
the country. The Sudan became a forgotten conflict, buried behind the flashy
headlines of the day, despite on-going violence that continues to rage in other
regions of the country such as Darfur, the Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and Abyei.
<a href="http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e483b76.html">According to the UNHCR</a>,
the situation in the Sudan is rapidly deteriorating with over 2 million internally displaced
persons and half a million Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries. This
raises the question: Was the CPA successful at managing conflict in the Sudan? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The CPA was designed to manage the conflict between the GoS
and the SPLM/A and it was largely successful at reducing the intensity of
violence between these two actors. Unfortunately, this peace came at the
expense of broader peace in other unstable regions of the country where <a href="http://www.enoughproject.org/conflicts/sudans/conflicts-sudan">armed
groups continue to fight</a> against a regime perceived as illegitimate by its
citizens. There were a number of challenges with the structure and
implementation of the CPA. The first problem was that the SPLM/A was assumed to
be representative of the opposition in the Sudan. International mediators made
a conscious decision to exclude other opposition groups in the Sudan from the
CPA negotiations to avoid over-complicating the process. Unfortunately, this decision
separated the conflict between the GoS and the SPLM/A from the larger problems
in the country and delegitimized the process in the eyes of other groups. The
second issue was that process solidified power between the GoS and SPLM/A
rather than creating political space for true democratic reforms to take place.
The final issue was that there was no enforcement mechanisms in the CPA once
the South gained independence. This meant that the remaining CPA agreements,
which called for referendum votes and consultations in other regions of the
country, were left unimplemented. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is a window of opportunity under Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau’s Liberal party government to rectify the past mistakes of the international
community. PM Trudeau has pledged to reengage in United Nations peacekeeping and
promote international peace and security. As the Liberal government considers
its strategy for re-engagement on the international stage, it should focus its gaze
on the Sudan and the ongoing UN peace missions inside its borders, <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/unamid/">UNAMID</a> and <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/unisfa/">UNISFA</a>. Stability
in the Sudan is important for larger stability in the region which is
threatened by <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/south-sudan/223-sudan-and-south-sudan-s-merging-conflicts.aspx">continual
interference of the GOS</a> in the affairs of its new neighbour to the South. The
UN Peacekeeping missions in the Sudan currently have no representation from major
powers in the international community. Canadian contribution to UN peacekeeping
in the Sudan sends a message that the international community is still watching
and puts pressure on the Sudanese government to fully implement the CPA. <o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11217460541179448209noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-47865091061109194172016-04-06T06:28:00.002-07:002016-04-06T13:59:30.304-07:00Separatism in Contemporary Xinjiang<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What Is The Conflict & Who Are The Contenders?</span></b><br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Picture the aftermath of an </span><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27502652"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">attack</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> by </span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-blast-idUSBREA4L01K20140523"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">five</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> suicide bombers in a street market
killing 31 people in a provincial capital.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Now picture the government </span><a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-xinjiang-idUKKBN0E80H820140528"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">response</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> a week later conducting a mass trial
of 55 people in a sports stadium with just over 7,000 people in attendance as
spectators.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is just one of many
methods that characterizes how both the Uighur’s and the Peoples Republic of
China (PRC) have used against each other as a means of conflict management.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The conflict has been
growing since the annexation of Xinjiang into the Qing Empire to its
amalgamation into the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by Mao Zedong in 1949. Since incorporation into the PRC, there has been an separatist conflict that is ongoing into contemporary
Xinjiang.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, it appears there is
space for some conflict management strategies to cease conflict </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">but ultimately, the technique most likely to work is one where both sides fighting it out</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> until one side is victorious over the other in achieving their goals and objectives. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What Are Both Parties Seeking?</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From the perspective of the Uighur’s
the goal appears to be a continued fight – peaceful and violent – for
negotiations and independence from the Chinese state in some form.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Uighurs in Xinjiang have had independence
three times between 1750 and 1949, have been subject to attacks on Uighur
culture through means such as </span><a href="http://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/xinjiang-conflict-uyghur-identity-language-policy-and-political-discourse"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">language policies</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, openly advocating for negotiations,
refuse </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/10/201210493210185606.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">conversion</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and integration into the Chinese </span><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/09/the-uighurs-chinas-embattled-muslim-minority-are-still-seeking-an-identity/280065/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">state and norms</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, are joining the </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/07/how-to-say-islamic-state-in-mandarin-china-isis-uighur-terrorism/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Islamic State</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in opposition to the Chinese </span><a href="https://news.vice.com/article/heres-why-china-should-be-worried-about-the-islamic-state"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">state</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, and are conducting domestic terror
attacks throughout China such as in the </span><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28305109"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Kunming attacks</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Uighur’s
have advocated for negotiations indicating a </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/world/asia/china-court-sentences-uighur-scholar-to-life-in-separatism-case.html?_r=0"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">voiced</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
desire to engage in </span><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-29222725"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">dialogue</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
and resolve conflict coming from within these communities, it is of equal
importance to examine the perspective of the PRC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet, the PRC appears to avoid engaging the Uighur community in any form of
dialogue but will engage them through means of violence and repression, some of which are
mentioned below.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From the perspective of the PRC it<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>appears the goal has been towards
assimilation and maintaining control over the region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is evident in numerous instances such as
how the Chinese government continues to pursue </span><a href="http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/PS015.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">language policies</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> against the Uighurs Turkic culture
and language, </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130213223223/http:/www.cecc.gov/pages/annualRpt/annualRpt11/AR2011final.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">criminalizing</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Uighur cultural practices, </span><a href="http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-war-terror-september-11-uighur-separatism/p4765">labeling</a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> the Uighur Community as terrorists, and
the continued mobilization of security forces into the province to enforce the
state and police Uighur communities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
is also important to note Xinjiang is seen by Beijing as the most crucial
province to maintaining the stability and unity of the Chinese state, how the
province is integral to managing national security given how the province
borders </span><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/5252768"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">eight countries</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, how China’s economy largely depends on
this region for trade and natural resources, provides China with access to the
rest of Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, claims of
independence are </span><a href="http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080916_cbs_1_foreignpolicyf.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">unacceptable</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to a government who places so much
importance on sovereignty and regime legitimacy while not appearing to be weak
domestically and internationally and is arguable therefore more open to the idea of fighting until complete victory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Techniques To Apply & Prospects For Success Or Failure </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<br />
Aside from both sides fighting against each other until one is victorious, <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">power-sharing and partition could also be a management technique to end the conflict. Xinjiang is an autonomous region which means the province and its inhabitants
are already decentralized from the PRC and therefore have a potential
foundation to build upon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">this faces
the obstacles of how </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the
Uighur community will not completely assimilate into state-run institutions in
addition to having the Chinese government labeling Uighurs as terrorists which
has further removed their legitimate political agency to engage with the
Chinese government. </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Any form of power-sharing and partition would constitute further
decentralization from Beijing which would </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">directly challenge and threaten the
legitimacy and strength of the Chinese government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The PRC will arguably do whatever it has to
do in order to ensure and enforce its legitimacy and control over its territory
and therefore any form of independence or forfeiture of sovereignty is not an
option.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Furthermore, it could be possible for both sides to enter into a mutually hurting stalemate that may result in the cessation of conflict. This
will require both the PRC and the Uighur
population to resolve their conflict when they are ready and when they
are in
an intolerable and costly situation in which either side cannot escalate
the
conflict to victory nor lose to one another and thus increasingly
appears both sides will have to fight it out until one is victorious
over the other. However there appears to be little indication that both sides recognize the existence of such conditions given how they continue to engage in violence against each other in which neither side appears to be surrendering to one another.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Conclusively, it appears there is space for some conflict
management strategies to cease the ongoing separatist conflict in contemporary
Xinjiang however the most plausible technique appears to be leading towards fighting it out until one side emerges victorious. On a side note, external actors may
have a role to play as potential veto players given how the PRC does allow such
influence and intervention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the
PRC has only allowed support on the side of the Chinese government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This support comes from the countries of, </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-6508237928129052862016-04-06T05:41:00.000-07:002016-04-06T06:27:14.569-07:00Did Economic Sanctions End the War in Rhodesia?By Steve Goodman<br />
<br />
<u>Background:</u><br />
<u><br /></u>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/RhodesiaAllies1975.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/RhodesiaAllies1975.png" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 107%;">The war that took place in Rhodesia between 1964 and
1975 is known by different names: the Zimbabwe War of Liberation, the Second
Chimurenga, or the Bush War. Just as there are multiple names for this war, there are multiple perspectives in framing this conflict. To the white minority of three thousand who lived in the southern African county, it was a struggle against Communism and a fight to preserve a way of life. To the black nationalists seeking to establish majority rule, it was a struggle for equality representative democracy, and independence. This little-known chapter in the Cold War has received relatively little scholarly attention from a conflict management perspective. Most likely, this is because of the distasteful and exclusionary nature of the Smith government. Although the regime might have been abhorrent, the Bush War itself is not best left relegated to the past, because we can learn lessons about conflict management from it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u>The Conflict:</u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u><br /></u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://selousscouts.tripod.com/scoutguner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="scoutguner.jpg (627×672)" border="0" src="http://selousscouts.tripod.com/scoutguner.jpg" height="200" width="186" /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">When Ian Smith unilaterally declared independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, he sought to lock down the hegemony of the white settler minority in Southern Rhodesia, fearing that his country might end up swept up in a Communist insurgency led by black nationalists such as in Zambia or Angola. As might have been predicted, shoring up white minority rule in Salisbury was a call to war for black nationalists. The Maoist Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA) and Marxist-Leninist Zimbabwe People's Revolutionary Army (ZIPRA) took up arms against Smith's government, engaging in open conflict at first, and then resorting to guerrilla tactics through the 1970s. When the <i>Estado Novo </i>regime in Portugal fell in 1974, Mozambique became independent, and ZANLA especially found an ally and territory from which to launch its operations. The conflict intensified through the mid-1970s, and had spread throughout Rhodesia, with ZIPRA concentrating in the northeast in and around Zambia and southwest in and around Botswana, and ZANLA using the border areas of Mozambique to conduct operations. As the conflict grew increasingly bloody, the US and UK called for a negotiated settlement. When the counterinsurgency was still going well, Salisbury was reluctant to agree to a cessation of hostilities. However, the Bush War drew itself out to become a war of attrition. The international community, and especially the United States and United Kingdom, sanctioned the Smith government since its establishment. Apartheid South Africa, for its part, provided a resource corridor for the Rhodesian government by allowing fuel and supplies into the country to feed the war effort. However, by the late 1970s, time was no longer on Smith's side, as the economy took a downturn due to increasing numbers of white males being drafted, increased sanctions, and the flight of many of the white settlers from the country. In a military stalemate and with even South Africa wishing to distance itself from Rhodesia, Smith finally agreed to a negotiated settlement. He came to share power with black moderates within the country and the state of Zimbabwe-Rhodesia was created. Finally, elections took place in 1979, with the majority of votes in favour of returning to colony status. With black majority rule now in place, the UK granted Zimbabwe independence in 1980.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u>What Difference did Sanctions Make?</u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u><br /></u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/72/16/c3/7216c3bdf1f743cc77b1f6c322c04ef7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/72/16/c3/7216c3bdf1f743cc77b1f6c322c04ef7.jpg" /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Economic sanctions had the effect of isolating landlocked Rhodesia. The country's neighbours, with </span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 17.12px;">the notable exceptions of South Africa and Mozambique, had the effect of walling the country in so that not just trade but resupply for the war effort could barely take place. The black nationalists enjoyed increasing support from neighbouring countries and were trained and supplied by Communist states such as East Germany and the Soviet Union. After 1974, Mozambique also provided state support to ZANLA, and Rhodesia gained another hostile neighbour. Moreover, Pretoria's policy developed towards distancing itself from the white settler regime, leaving Smith without a friend in the world. In this light, real pressure was coming down on the Salisbury as the resource-hungry security forces were without long-run chances of resupply after a decade and a half of war. Although sanctions alone might not have broken the back of Smith's war effort, the combined isolation effects and the declining economic situation due to labour problems made a negotiated settlement look like the best option possible.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u>Why Should we Care?</u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><u><br /></u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">The example of Rhodesia shows us what can happen when the international community takes a unified approach in dealing with an illegal regime. Rhodesia became a pariah state such that eventually not even Apartheid South Africa would support it. Rhodesia's economy pre-conflict was strong, but declined steadily as the costs of war mounted. This also demonstrates the vulnerability of a landlocked state to a sanction regime. It is worth noting that Western states took little action beyond diplomatic and economic pressure on the Smith government. A military invasion of Rhodesia was not necessary to see the transition to black majority rule in the country. </span></span></div>
<br />
<u>Further Reading:</u><br />
<u><br /></u>
Mills, Greg, and Grahame Wilson. “Who Dares Loses? Assessing Rhodesia’ Counter-Insurgency Experience.” The RUSI Journal 152.6 (2007): 22-31. Web. 04 Apr 16. http://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/files/Who-Dares-Loses.pdf.<br />
<br />
Onslow, Sue, ed. Cold War in Southern Africa: White Power, Black Liberation. London: Routledge, 2009. Web.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Steve Goodmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18320349151596096343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-54279108216495631602016-04-05T14:53:00.002-07:002016-04-05T14:53:45.342-07:00Managing conflict in Afghanistan by developing police force capacity By E.J. Edwards<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
The Conflict<span lang="EN-CA"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
Conflict in Afghanistan since
2001 has been a contest between the Government of the Islamic Republic of
Afghanistan (GIROA) and armed insurgent groups including the Taliban, Islamic
State – Khorasan Province, and the Haqqani Network, each of which is seeking to
delegitimize and topple the GIROA to carve out a state-like entity under their
own control and ideology. (Katzman, 2016) International assistance to sustain,
develop, and expand the GIROA’s governance has taken various forms including
financial and technical aid, developing the capacity of the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) as well as military intervention to combat the insurgency. The main vehicle for international military
assistance has been the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) deployment
of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which in addition to
training the ANSF provided security to much of the country from 2001-2014. (Council
on Foreign Relations, 2014) Violence in the country has fluctuated since the commencement
of hostilities in 2001 with high-points occurring in 2006, 2009, and more
recently as ISAF troop levels have declined. (Council on Foreign Relations,
2014) Throughout the last fifteen years, insurgents have relied heavily on guerilla
and terrorist tactics including suicide bombings, targeted killings, IEDs,
ambushes and occasionally large-scale attacks on civilians, aid workers, ISAF
forces and Afghan government forces.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
Managing the Conflict<span lang="EN-CA"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As part of the broader
international intervention in Afghanistan, ISAF and international actors have
sought to develop the capacity of local security forces, with the aim of transitioning
responsibility for the provision of security into Afghan hands. Security Sector
Reform is the overarching concept guiding this process and is defined as “re-constituting
state-level institutions, enabling domestic civil society organizations to
engage in SSR processes, or providing technical training or material support”.
(Donais, 2008) The establishment and development of the Afghan National Police
has been a central pillar of the conflict management through SSR strategy, and
has been driven by various missions led by Germany, the European Union, NATO,
the U.S. Army and individual agencies like Canada’s Royal Canadian Mounted
Police (RCMP). Each effort has followed the same logic and aim of moving from limited or
non-existent local capacity and local ownership to high local capacity and
local ownership; from a situation where external actors are responsible for providing
security, to a state where the external actors have been transitioned out and
local forces are responsible for security.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
Evaluating Success<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Afghanistan does not possess a
professional, sustainable, or independent police force, this is not to say the
conflict management efforts of the international community have been a failure,
merely that there have been pernicious challenges which have inhibited the overall
realization of this goal. The first of these challenges was the absence of a
unified strategy at the outset of the mission, which instead relied on ‘lead
nations’ to independently develop the various compartments of Afghanistan’s
security sector. The second challenge has been a breakdown in the tandem
development of local capacity and local ownership, as evidenced by the Afghan
Local Police (ALP) in which a lack of training and professionalism paired with
a dependence on the ALP for policing services is a recipe for strategic
failure. (Murray, 2011) A third challenge to the ANP’s development is a
reliance on military trainers and curricula which influences the ethos,
application, and practices of the police service in Afghanistan; this has been
problematic in transitioning to post-conflict stabilization. The final factor
which has inhibited progress is the overuse of police forces as
counterinsurgents, the result of which has been high attrition rates and
officers poorly suited to conventional policing. (Murray 2011) The gray area
between kinetic military operations and civilian policing is a necessary step
for the type of state-building the Afghans and their partners have pursued, but
the overuse of the police as counterinsurgents and the ad hoc approach which
characterized their application shows a failure in planning and in understanding
the strategic COIN environment.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
Recommendations for Canada<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->11. Advocate
for unified SSR strategies which
are integrated among international partners and include significant
contributions from local actors according to their needs, realities, and
priorities.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->22. Maintain reputation as a credible donor by seeking capacity development opportunities
which are founded on sustainable and strategic goals for developing local training
and institutional capacities.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">33. Provide
police personnel for capacity development missions and emphasize through
multilateral avenues their value added in comparison to military personnel
fulfilling the same role.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->44. Encourage
distinction in the minds of international and local partners between
war-fighters, counter-insurgents, and police officers, by offering unique support
to training and equipping each of the three. <o:p></o:p></div>
<h2 style="text-align: justify;">
Sources and Additional Information<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 28.35pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -28.35pt;">
<span style="text-indent: -28.35pt;">Council on Foreign
Relations. (2014). U.S. War in Afghanistan 1999-Present. Retrieved from Council
on Foreign Relations: http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/us-war-afghanistan/p20018</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 28.35pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -28.35pt;">
Donais, T. (2008). Local Ownership and Security Sector Reform.
Geneva: Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 28.35pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -28.35pt;">
Katzman, K. (2016). Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security,
and U.S. Policy. Washington: Congressional Research Service.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 28.35pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -28.35pt;">
Murray, T. (2011). Security Sector Reform in Afghanistan, 2002-2011:
An Overview of a Flawed Process. International Studies, 48(1), 43-63.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01615468694860364649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7385270543584342264.post-8827566149477575982016-03-31T14:29:00.002-07:002016-03-31T14:29:22.595-07:00Blog SummaryThis blog presents the posts by the students of <a href="http://carleton.ca/npsia/faculty/">NPSIA</a>'s <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7252748/INAF%205109%20Winter%202016%20Conflict%20Management%20Course%20Outline.pdf">Conflict Management</a> class. The students will post blog versions of their final papers. And, yes, I will be grading the posts as part of their course grade.Steve Saidemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09881915512311951902noreply@blogger.com0